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Stuck At Home, Is US More Dangerous Than SG?

31/3/2020

My wife and I have been pretty much stuck at home since 17 March.

She got a work from home order from her office so she stays at home to work now.
She hasn't left the apartment for 2 weeks.
We did get into the car for a drive around the neighbourhood for around 10 minutes once or twice during the 2 weeks.

Things aren't much different as when she's going to work. Except she does all her stuff at home now.
For me, it's life as normal.
I hardly go out on normal days anyway. Usually I go buy groceries once a week or once per 2 weeks depending on mood. Then I cook and read news and financial stuff and watch Youtube.

We're pretty lucky that this happened in Houston instead of Paris, cos the apartment is twice the size. Furthermore, I have less furniture in the US. So I have a lot more space here.
I imagine it would be really claustrophobic if we were still in Paris.

The thing is, it's not that bad to be stuck at home. There's always time to go and play 6 months later.
For now, just relax at home.
We used to go out on weekends so it's a bit sian on weekends, so my wife has started watching Korean dramas.
Houston has a stay at home notice and by right people should only go out for essential jobs and essential activities. Sit down at restaurants is forbidden, only dabao and delivery.

Quite a big difference from SG where shops are still open and people can still go out and eat at food courts and restaurants.

Ah well but for us, life goes on as normal. Having my wife around all the time is also getting on my nerves. I do appreciate my own quiet time when she's usually out at work.
Training for me when she eventually retires.

Ok sooo... Let's think about it, in US, cases are climbing. The number 1 in the world now.
In SG, the numbers are also climbing, but a lot less.

So, is it safer in US or in SG? I'm talking only about the Coronavirus situation here.
Should I fly back to SG, where I will probably have better access to healthcare?

Well, for me, I think everywhere is safe, and everywhere is dangerous.
I'm only as safe as what I choose to do.

So it depends. If I want to do the same things in US as I can do in SG, maybe SG might be safer.
BUT, IF I want to remain safe in US, it's not hard to remain safe.
Just buy 6 months worth of groceries and camp in home for 6 months.
That's not even hard, and doesn't require much space.

A 10kg sack of rice lasts for 2 months. So I just need 30kg of rice.
A few cartons of canned food and frozen food in the freezer will last me for 6 months.
I COULD just do that and I would be as safe in ANY country.
I currently have enough food for around 2 months so I can camp for 2 months if I want to.

I have been thinking of flying back to SG, cos... it feels safer. It's home. I'm used to everything there. I know I can get healthcare, family, friends, etc...
BUT, the flight itself is a dangerous process.
Don't create a problem where there is no problem.
I might feel that in US, things are getting worse. And it IS getting worse in the US.
BUT, are things getting worse for ME? Is my risk increasing?
Well, if I go out, yes the risk increases, but if i stay at home, the risk is almost zero.
Even in SG, if I go back, I have to self quarantine for 14 days. Furthermore, I also will try not to leave the house and wander around.
NO. That's inconsiderate, there will be another time to go jalan jalan, walk around, shopping, whatever. So I'll probably just camp at home even if I'm in SG. Sooooo... what's the difference?

Camp at home in SG vs camp at home in US? No difference.
So why do I want to take the risk to get on a 20 hour flight with random strangers to fly back to SG just to do exactly the same thing as what I would do in SG?

So end up... we decide to just stay in the US and camp at home.

I still know of people in SG going out jalan jalan at shopping centers, go out everyday and eat, etc etc...
What's the point.
Many drops of water make an ocean, 1 person go out, another person go out, eventually, there'll be a crowd... sigh...
It's like smoking, people think it won't happen to them, until it happens to them...

Stay safe people.
If you NEED to go out, by all means go out, but if don't need, then don't go out.
I'm sure people reading this blog understand what are NEEDS VS WANTS RIGHT?!

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Stop Trying To Rationalize EVERY Price Move

30/3/2020

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“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
--Benjamin Graham

I see news, economist, traders, etc...
They say... oh the market is up because, down because...

Learn and understand this... the market makes no sense in the short term.
Accept it and suck it up.

What will the direction be tomorrow? No one knows.
It's easy to spin a story AFTER the market moves.
Oh, it's due to the FED, it's due to the... Whatever... And people buy this nonsense.
It makes them feel better, feel more comforted that there's an explanation to all the irrationality.

But there isn't.

And don't bother to look for it.
The market moves as it moves.

Make a judgement 6 months, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years into the future.
What do you think will happen then and make your decisions based on that.

There is no one better to explain the concept of Mr. Market than Warren Buffett, who has used to to make billions of dollars and remain calm when all around him were losing their heads.

In the 1987 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett unfolds the concept for us.

Ben Graham, my friend and teacher, long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success. He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.

Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market’s quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions, he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.

Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn’t mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you.

But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren’t certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don’t belong in the game. As they say in poker, “If you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.”

Ben’s Mr. Market allegory may seem out-of-date in today’s investment world, in which most professionals and academicians talk of efficient markets, dynamic hedging and betas. Their interest in such matters is understandable, since techniques shrouded in mystery clearly have value to the purveyor of investment advice. After all, what witch doctor has ever achieved fame and fortune by simply advising “Take two aspirins”?

The value of market esoterica to the consumer of investment advice is a different story. In my opinion, investment success will not be produced by arcane formulae, computer programs or signals flashed by the price behavior of stocks and markets. Rather an investor will succeed by coupling good business judgment with an ability to insulate his thoughts and behavior from the super-contagious emotions that swirl about the marketplace. In my own efforts to stay insulated, I have found it highly useful to keep Ben’s Mr. Market concept firmly in mind.

Following Ben’s teachings, Charlie and I let our marketable equities tell us by their operating results – not by their daily, or even yearly, price quotations – whether our investments are successful. The market may ignore business success for a while, but eventually will confirm it. As Ben said: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” The speed at which a business’s success is recognized, furthermore, is not that important as long as the company’s intrinsic value is increasing at a satisfactory rate. In fact, delayed recognition can be an advantage: It may give us the chance to buy more of a good thing at a bargain price.

https://fs.blog/2013/11/mr-market/

So... Forget it.
Learn to live beyond the noise.
Else how to retire young? When retiring early, a lot of people have something to comment about it.
Must make a decision and plan into the future and have confidence that things will work out.

Same same but different.
Understand how things work, learn, do your calculations, make your judgement calls, then execute.

It's easy to "explain" things saying that... Oh the FED stimulus is worth more than the unemployment AFTER the market has moved.
Ask these experts to make a call on which is worth more BEFORE the market has moved? And you get a 50/50 % chance of someone getting it correct.

I have friends who said it doesn't make sense.
Money can't cure a virus. Yes that's true...
So make the judgement call and let Mr Market do his own thing.
I've stopped trying to rationalize the markets in the short term.
And personally, to me, when I read these articles, I feel, they are mainly BS.
Just another human trait to try to explain something which has no meaning.

Enough!!

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Why the Coronavirus Situation IS Serious

25/3/2020

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Ok... So... I'm no medical expert. But here's my take on the situation.

Why is there so much panic? Hype? Fear? About the Coronavirus...

The death rate is estimated to be around 3%... Which is typically considered light risk?
So why is there so much steps by Governments to contain the virus?

The Coronavirus situation IS serious. Make no mistake, I'm not downplaying it.

People are comparing it to the flu, that the death rate is higher but it isn't something to panic about, OR XXX numbers have died of the flu this year whereas Coronavirus hasn't even killed enough to make those numbers yet.

The thing about the Coronavirus, is that it is highly infectious. It spreads easily and it has around 20% hospitalization rate.
It has around a 2-5% intensive care rate, and an estimated 2-3% death rate.
The numbers look like something around there. Plus minus 1% depending on which country the patient is in.
Also, it is spread by people without symptoms.

So why the concern by so many Governments?
Well... Simply because, the hospitals can't handle the sudden influx of patients.
Have you ever gone to a hospital where the staff are sitting around doing nothing?
Usually, no... meaning, most hospitals are running on 90+% capacity.

So what happens when there are 5000 COVID patients? Well... 80% can stay at home and 20%, which is 1,000 need to be hospitalized, of which 30-50 people need ICU.
How many cities have spare capacity of 1,000 PLUS 50 more ICU spaces?

Singapore is smart, they contained the spread of COVID early. So the infections are around 500 at this time, and if they can slow down the infection rate, patients can get cured and discharged from hospital.

Why do you think China suddenly built hospitals in 2 weeks? Cos they needed more capacity.

In many other countries where they took this virus for granted, we are seeing heavy casualties.
Spain, Italy...
France and US, New York in particular, should have more issues in the coming weeks.
Although France might be in time to contain it cos they are imposing heavy fines to keep people at home.

So... Is the Coronavirus "itself" really serious/dangerous... well... I don't think so.
BUT the Coronavirus PLUS the lack of capacity in the healthcare system is the serious issue here.

That's not saying that overall the healthcare system is lacking. The healthcare system worked well enough before this COVID issue and it will work again after the COVID issue.
Currently, there is very little people with immunity to COVID, so the infection rate is high. It's easy to contract the disease. It's... "possible"... for a large bulk of the population to slowly get the disease and the healthcare system will be able to handle the cases.
Alternatively, we could wait for a vaccine for to inoculate a bulk of the GLOBAL population.

So is the Coronavirus situation serious? Yes and No...
But not for the usual reasons you're thinking of.
Most people think COVID itself is scary... But for me, I think, what's scary is that the healthcare system won't be able to handle it IF there is a much bigger outbreak.

So, don't take for granted and think gathering in small groups is OK...
No... it's not ok. Just stay at home and let this all blow over.
If everyone thinks hang in small groups is ok, then... many small groups make one big group. End up like Italy, Spain and France... So you know... just relax at home for a bit this period. There's always another day tomorrow. It's like... preparing for retirement.
If you sit around at home and have nothing to do... well... that's what it feels like to be retired. Then start thinking of something to do in your free time that doesn't cost money and can be done at home.

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The Economics of the Crash

20/3/2020

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Ok... let's think about this simply...

In 2008, why did the markets crash?
Interest rates were raised, many people couldn't pay mortgages, many asset backed securities didn't do well, many CDS/STS and other derivatives got called due to the defaults and banks had liquidity problems.
Cos... Debt...
Interest and loans still needed to be paid.
This was made worse by the leverage of the derivatives where more insurance on debt was sold than debt itself. So when the insurance needed to payout, there wasn't enough money to go around.

Fast forward to 2020...
What do you think is happening?
Same same but different?
Virus fears caused people and Governments to shut down, stop going out, reduce consumption.
A lot of folks are just hanging at home living on basic necessities.
Many people will lose their jobs, think restaurants, flights aren't flying, hotels, retail outlets will still hire the same number of people?
Due to decrease in demand, manufacturers will also reduce headcount.
So what happens when people lose their jobs?
Remember?... Debt...
Interest and loans still need to be paid.
What're banks going to do?
Many businesses are run with significant debt.
Many people still have to pay for their home mortgages.
Reduced consumption and loss of jobs... What do you think?
Rent still needs to be paid... Retail, logistics, commercial...

FYI... For many food shops, based on talking with friends, the whole month's revenue is mainly to used to pay expense. Only maybe 3 days worth of revenue is considered profit. Means for for 27 days, a food business is paying expense, and the last 3 days what the sell, they make it as profit.
So what happens when demand drops 50%?
Scale that up to all the businesses in the whole world.

So in the end, all the fixed cost gonna deal a lot of damage to the economy.
Businesses or individuals will have issues paying up their fixed commitments.
Maybe not you yourself, but there's a good chance people will lose their jobs.

In the US, it's common to hear people have no money to buy groceries, especially during this period. People like paycheck to paycheck, and people can get laid off very easily.
So there's probably still more pain to come.
Companies haven't even started to go bankrupt yet.

What if Malaysia extends the lockdown for another 30 days?

Historically, market downturns don't recover overnight. They don't fall for 2 weeks and suddenly recover.
Market downturns last for 3-6 months, sometimes years before they start to recover...

You want to buy shares? Sure...
Remember you'll probably not be able to pick the bottom, so maybe if you're lucky you can catch it 10% near the bottom, but do you want to buy 10% before it hits the bottom, or 10% after it hits the bottom?
If you buy it 10% before it hits the bottom, how sure are you that one of the stocks you bought isn't one that's potentially going to go bankrupt?
So it's probably better to buy it when it's going up, and all the companies that are going bust are already bust and the worst is behind.

Interesting times we live in...
If you're stable and set up ready to take advantage of this situation, good for you.
If not... then watch how this situation plays out and remember it, and remember to be ready the next time it happens.

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The Virus & The Market

16/3/2020

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Finally decided to write something about it.

Now... of course, this is all my musing and my own thoughts, so don't take them as what will really happen in the future.
It's just me thinking about probabilities and how things will turn out.

The Virus...
It's a simple thing. Humans are smart. We won't die out just cos of some virus.
There will be 2 things that could happen.
1) The virus disappears as containment and quarantine measures work.
2) The virus becomes a normal occurrence like the flu.

The bark is worse than the bite. Currently the panic of a little known virus has caused the world to panic, and Governments are pushed to action, cos they cannot be seen by the citizens to be doing nothing.
The problem is the coronavirus could spread quickly. If suddenly 20% of Singaporeans get it, the healthcare system won't be able to handle the influx. This is the same for any other country. The hope is probably to just spread out and slow down the spread of the disease. So that the infection rate is low and spread out over time so that the healthcare system can cope.

This shall pass...

The markets... this is of course more interesting.
I've been waiting for an event like this for 6 years.
I wrote about this before.
I've been holding pretty much liquid assets for the past 6 years waiting for a strong market event and I think, this is probably it.

And this is how I think it could pan out...
If this remains a consumption/recession issue, I'm expecting the markets to fall by 40% from peak.
S&P high was 3380 a 40% down would be 2028.
I'm not expecting it to be a quick drop, probably 3-6 months for it to slowly go down to this level as consumption and businesses feel the hit.

IF it somehow becomes a financial crisis, then there's a chance of a 60% drop from peak.
That's S&P at 1352 and this will be a quick drop like in 2008. This is highly unlikely since the FED has come out to reduce interest rates and start quantitative easing again.

Due to the FED moves...
Initially during this crisis, I'm expecting the USD to remain strong against the SGD.
Gold is expected to drop. My belief is gold has peaked at 1700 and will not cross that in the short term.
HOWEVER... After the 40-60% drop in S&P, the USD is expected to weaken against the SGD as the money supply increases. It could drop to they days of SGD1.22 = USD1 due to the liquidity that the FED has injected into the markets.
The issue here becomes... IF someone buys the S&P after the 40% drop (3-6 months later), they would be buying USD at a higher rate to invest in the S&P. Then they will incur a potential loss of around 10-15% as the USD weakens against the SGD.
Of course the way to avoid this is to hedge against the drop of SGD/USD. This can be done using a margins trading account.

BUT, as the USD weakens, gold is expected to strengthen and should end up more than the last peak of 1700 to reach a new peak of unknown level.

And this too shall pass...

In 5 years, the effects of the market downturn would be no more.
The S&P is expected to recover to more than the last peak of 3380.
The weakened USD would recover to around the same levels as before the crisis. So there's no real need to hedge against the drop of the USD.
Gold will weaken 10-20% off the new peak. It could settle at 1700 as the new average price.

Ok... now of course this is my own thoughts of what I'm expecting to happen. And I'll make decisions based on what I'm expecting.
In no way am I suggesting anyone else makes any investment decisions based on my expectations of what the market will do.
I just thought of penning down my thoughts on how the "crisis" would pan out and 6 months later or 2 years later I can look back and review what happened versus what I thought would happen.

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What I realized after 14 years with a Finance Degree

9/3/2020

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After 14 years with a Finance Degree... I've learnt... Nothing makes sense.

In the long term, things make sense.
Example. If interest rates are low, prices of things tend to end up higher in a middle to long term.

In the short term, however, anything goes. Markets could go up, or down, there's no real rationale behind it, besides traders having their fun.

If Governments print money to inject into the market. Their currencies WILL devalue. This is what happened to the USD and EUR. HOWEVER, no one knows if the Governments will remove the injected funds from the economy in the future to raise the value of their currency again.

Markets may crash... You may wait for a good opportunity to buy. HOWEVER, Governments can step in and prevent the crash, by bailouts, injecting more funds, etc...
So... you COULD be right... but you could also lose money or lose an opportunity.

The problem is uncertainty upon uncertainty.
Markets are uncertain and Government policy are uncertain. Elections are uncertain and a particular government could mess up a whole country in just a short period of time.

After 14 years... The only thing I know is that markets will tend to go up in the long run.
One could put some effort to analyze stocks and make good money in the short and middle term.
Alternatively for most people, the best idea is to buy a bunch of index trackers close your eyes and go to sleep for 30 years and wake up rich.

I've been alive for 37 years. I've watched the Asian Crisis in 1998, SARS in around 2002, Great Recession in 2008, probably some earlier than 1998 which I wasn't aware of. In a span of 22 years, so much has happened.
And in another 20 years, even more will happen.

I find, the easiest way to sleep well and be prepared for the future is to just get a bunch of diversified index trackers, get good insurance coverage, work a fairly simple job, be frugal and live within my means.

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And the buying has started...

6/3/2020

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I went to the supermarket today. Sam's Club. It's a wholesale center which needs membership to buy stuff from. It's a subsidiary of Walmart...

Water was sold out, paper towels were sold out, hand sanitizers are out of stock.
Face masks have been out of stock for weeks. I haven't seen them in any supermarkets.

Houston hasn't had any cases yet. But people are stocking up. It's pretty obvious. I tend to go to this supermarket cos it's along the way to pick up my wife, so I can just buy some stuff for dinner on my way to pick her, and it's near where we stay so we can just go and walk around during the weekends.
On Monday, after the boil water alert was lifted, people were still buying bottled water.
There were people buying 2 cartons, there were people buying 10 cartons.

I didn't go to Sam's club today to stock up. I just wanted to get some stuff for today's dinner. But as I walked in, the guy at the door was announcing to people entering... "No more bottled water, or paper towels"...
You get the picture....

Now, the shelves aren't empty. Sam's club is like IKEA. It's huge, with pallets of stuff stacked on high shelves. Think of the flat pack area in IKEA, but this time all canned food, and other kinds of non-perishables.
But right in the middle, where usually there are 3 pallets of bottled water for people to load their shopping trolleys, is a large empty space.
Shelves where the toilet paper and paper towels are, sat empty...

It is what it is. This is normal human behaviour.
We have done this since we were cavemen. We care for our own security.
If we are afraid that the future is uncertain, we WILL want to do what we can to minimize any risks.
Maybe there won't be a lack of supply in the months to come... BUT... what if there IS?
Better to stock up first than to really panic in future.

Humans were hunters and gatherers.
Then we started domesticating animals and farming so that food supplies can be more consistent.
This is part of our survival. We want stability and security.

The Government can say that they have ample supplies and there's no need to panic...
But what if they are lying?
What if the crisis is larger than they expect?
How would the citizens know? We don't. And I think... I'd rather not leave it to faith.
I do what I can. If there's really no shortage. Ok fine... but what if there is?

For me, stocking up is part of my life. I do it for finances. I also do it for food and other supplies.
So during this period. I'm not too concerned. I also don't need to join the queue to buy stuff.
But I can understand why people do it. Cos they are concerned. They are concerned about their own well being and their future security.

And... I think it's reasonable behaviour.
But for me... I rather be prepared BEFORE the scramble.
Not during the rush. And of course, I don't want to be unprepared if any problems arise.

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Cheapest Breakfast in Houston

5/3/2020

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It's hard to say "no" to cheap food.
Especially when the food is quite nice as well.
The problem is, it's not particularly healthy food. But it's cheap.

Look at the picture below. How much do you think it costs?

This is a sausage & egg McGriddles + a sausage McMuffiin + a hashbrown.
Coffee is free from my apartment. The apartment complex has a coffee machine and residents can just take a coffee for free. It's common practice in all apartments. Some apartments even have a Starbucks machine for residents to take for free.

Anyway, back to the topic of a cheap breakfast.
How much do you think it costs me?
Usually in SG, a McGriddles is S$4+?
Sausage McMuffin is S$2+?
Hashbrown is S$1?
If you buy a set it's around S$5-S$6?

Well... over here. McDonald's is cheap...
I download the McDonald's app. Every week, they have new coupons to use.
For the past few weekends, I've been eating McGriddles for US$1
YES... Just US$1.
I just scan the coupon at the counter and I can buy any breakfast sandwich for US$1.

But just a McGriddles isn't enough. Cos... eating McDonald breakfast must have hashbrown and coffee.
So I buy a value set. A sausage McMuffin+Hashbrown at US$1.50. This is available all the time.

I eat the McGriddles + hashbrown and free coffee.
Then leave the sausage McMuffin for snack later in the day.
All for just US$2.71 (after tax). This is around S$3.80 at current exchange rates.

And the coupons refresh every Sunday. So I get this promotion every week.
It's hard to say "no" to US$1 McGriddles.

The other day, they had another promo...
There's this thing called "Egg McMuffin day" it's on 2 March.

And yea... There's free egg McMuffin.
There was a coupon just valid for one day. It appeared on the the app.
I went down to McDonald's and just scanned the coupon and walked away with a free egg McMuffin.
No other purchase necessary.

On the 29 Feb, another coupon appeared on the app. $0.29 for 2 hashbrowns!
I didn't go and claim the promo cos I already ate McDonald's on 28 Feb, before I went for my driving test.

McDonald's is by far the cheapest food available. IF I just stick to the promotions.
They have promos like one for one quarter pounder, or US$0.99 large fries, etc.

Yes, it's healthier and cheaper to cook for myself. But McDonald's is a close competitor cos it's super convenient and there's no clean up.
Anyway, I don't eat McDonald's everyday. I mainly like their breakfasts. So I tend to just eat the above mentioned set on Saturdays.

I don't know if the promo is on forever, cos there were a couple of weeks where the US$1 McGriddles wasn't available so I don't think it's on every week, but I do think it's quite a common promo.

How about you? Would you go to McDonald's often if you could get S$1.50 McGriddles?

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Looking for a Car

4/3/2020

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I always thought I would be easy to buy a car in the US.
I mean, how hard can it be right? It should be cheap and no real issue compared to SG.
Well... I recently found out that it's a lot harder than it seems.

Cars are cheaper in the US, but they aren't really cheap.
Cheap cars can be as low as US$1,000-US$4,000 but they are pretty crappy. I mean REALLY crappy. And my standards are already quite low.
I felt sad sitting in the car. Smelly, scratched up, some leaks here and there...
So I decided that that budget would be too low, cos I'm going to be using the car everyday and I want at least a bit of comfort and happiness.

BUT WAIT. I can buy an old BMW or Mercedes for around US$4,000!
I asked around and everyone told me not to ever do that. The car would be cheap but I would require to spend a lot on repairs and maintenance.

If I was looking for a cheap old car, I would need to find a Toyota.
They are expensive for old cars but they have less issues when I use it.
Meaning, I could find a US$4k Toyota which would run more reliably than a $4k BMW.
Makes me think of my old post (曾经拥有 I once used to have).
It would be a great time for me to buy a cheap BMW or Mercedes and just drive it for a bit and repair it along the way. I would probably never be able to afford such a vehicle when I return to SG.

OMG my tastes have changed. I'm looking at BMW instead of Mercs.
Maybe cos I'll never own a sports car in SG and I'm looking for a pretty looking one.

Alas, I still won't do it. I'll just get myself an old Toyota Camry so that I can use it without any issues and low repairs.

But ok, moving on, then we increased our budget to around US$7k, and I was looking around, the Toyota Camrys at US$7k are either newer models "2010" with 120k miles (not kilometers), OR "2006" models with lower miles around 80k miles.
So it's a give and take. Both of these also aren't perfect. They may have a bit of issues, light leaks, wear and tear, suspension issues, etc. But definitely in a better condition than the US$4k cars.

Then the question we asked ourselves is...
Most people buy Toyota Camrys cos they last forever.
Camrys have their own clientele. They are boring cars for people who want a long term vehicle.
IF they are selling it after 10-15 years... WHY? What's wrong with it?
OR...
If the Camry has 5 previous owners... then... maybe that's the rare lemon Camry?

Which makes me suspect and wonder...
Cos in my mind... rarely would someone sell their Camrys. It would be rare for someone to sell their Camry if the Camry has no issues.
Cos people who buy Camrys want reliability. And usually Camrys are reliable. And the only reason for them to sell it, is IF the Camry is no longer reliable.

Which lead me to looking at new cars!
Cos... second hand Camrys cannot be trusted!

And since I'm looking at new cars... then might as well look at BMW and Mercs as well!!!
Cos, if there's anytime to get one, nows the time, cos I'll never afford it in SG.
So I'm back to square one.

I estimate if I lease a vehicle, it would cost me around US$10k-US$15k for 2 years.
If I bought an old Camry at US$7k, I could spend another US$3k in unlikely repairs and own it until I go back to SG, and I'll still recoup some money back when I sell it.
Still makes a lot of logical sense to just buy an old car and repair it.

I'm still stuck in between currently. Still looking for a vehicle. I need to get one within the next 10 days cos I have to return the temporary rental vehicle soon.
I'll likely just get a reasonable Camry and repair it when I need to. It's probably the most economical way.
Although the idea of spending a bit to own a fancy car does appeal to me. Cos truthfully, this is probably the only chance I'm going to get to get such a vehicle for a low price.

Let's see how it goes in the next few days.

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