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Binary Thinking

30/3/2021

I've recently found that there are quite a lot of people who think in this way.
Binary thinking. Yes or no.
And I think that's very wrong.
Many things aren't black and white.
A lot of time, it depends many factors, on the situation, the time, the generation, etc.

For example...
Cryptocurrencies.
Some people think it's the thing of the future. Some people think it's a bubble.
Why can't it be both?
It could be a bubble like tech stocks were in 2001. But in the long run, it also could be the thing of the future.
Is this discussion even important?
If you want to buy, then you buy, if you don't want to buy then don't buy.

In the end, big cat, small cat, black cat, white cat, it's still a cat.
If it catches a mouse, it's a good cat.
If someone manages to make money with crypto, regardless of short term trading or long term investing.
Well... good for this person.

Same as politics... It's not A is right, means B is wrong.
Doesn't mean A is always right. A lot of things needs to be looked at in context.
How do you know the media is telling the truth or not?
How do you know if the alternative media is telling the truth or not?
What's good for the individual may not be good for the country. What's good for the country may not be good for the individual.

It's similar as what's the best carrot cake or charkwayteow in SG.
There is none. There are a lot of good carrot cake or CKT stalls.
Some are better than others.
But it all depends on people and tastes. Some have more customers, could be due to price, location, etc...
Some people like it sweet, some like it less sweet, some like it fried til crispy, some don't like it too crispy.
There really isn't a BEST.
In truth, there are "some of the best". Cos these are all subjective. Depends on who's eating. AND also a function of TIME, cos maybe as generations change, tastes of the generations change as well...

And like sports... Some say, XXX is the GOAT (Greatest of all time) in tennis, basketball, baseball, etc...
At best, we can say this person was one of the best players of his time.
Things change, Agassi, won't be playing Nadal in his prime. We'll never find out who's better.
Maybe Jordan's Chicago Bulls team were all great in providing him support which allowed him to excel, maybe the other teams couldn't play as well together.
Maybe for a whole generation there might have been a lack of talent and technology, like how Schumacher owned the race courses for a whole generation. Then maybe now the standards for racing might have changed, and the competition standards might be higher now. We'll never really know if Schumacher would have done as well in this generation if he in his prime.
Right man, right place, right time.
I mean, fans boys love to say XYZ is the GOAT.
But really, we'll never find out.
I mean... if we put Lee Kuan Yew into SG politics now... Would he do as well? Change his name, have a new guy, with similar disposition, same style of politics...
(I mean, we can't use the same name LKY right, then everyone would know it's him. The only way to think about it is for a newcomer who enters SG politics who has the same style and way of doing things.)

The thing is, binary thinking is potentially dangerous and divisive.
It draws a clear line between people. And what's the point in that?
There's really no right or wrong in many issues.
Some people like strong coffee, some people like weak watery coffee.
Some people like chunky peanut butter, some people like creamy peanut butter.
Some people want to buy crypto, some don't... not your money, not important. The problem is... those who didn't buy get jealous when those who bought made money.

A lot of things... well, really not our problem. Nothing to really discuss.
It's only my problem if it affects me. And as I think about life... there's really very little things that affect me. I mean... I try not to get involved in things or issues. Too troublesome...

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Be Careful Of Phishing Emails

29/3/2021

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So recently, we received an email from Chope... saying that we had a reservation at a restaurant somewhere in SG.
Obviously we didn't make the reservation, so the natural response is...
Well... we didn't click the email. But that's cos we always try to be careful when clicking emails.

The natural response for most people would be to click the link to cancel the reservation or to find out more about it.
And it's pretty obvious that it's trying some phishing attack...
The email was from [email protected]
Whereas the usual reservation from Chope is @chope.com

Then I also had a friend who recently received another email from a restaurant chain, saying "Unfortunately, we weren't able to reset the password for XXX email account".
And once again, it's to induce people to click the link. Cos usually people will click links when it's not something they themselves triggered...

So it seems like recently, these phishing attacks are using some basic non important emails to try to trick people.
I mean previously, they used bank emails and try to phish info making people concerned that something wrong happened with their bank.
Or maybe it's their delivery of a parcel by the post office.
And now... seems like they are using some innocent emails like restaurant reservation or some random membership account to induce folks to click the link to see what's happening...

Well... DON'T CLICK...
Just thought I'd share.

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When Do You Know Life Has Changed?

19/3/2021

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I haven't been posting much.
No inspiration.
But, thanks to Mr15HWW, I got a topic to talk about.
So I read his recent blog post about not buying a Chanel bag for his wife.

The interesting thing about this post is that... well... many years back, I would have absolutely absolutely agreed with him.
Yet, now, maybe 5 years into my joblessness, I feel significantly different.

Ok so this situation really depends on circumstances. It's not that I would say that buying a Chanel bag is acceptable in ALL situations. But rather for Mr15HWW, I personally feel that getting that Chanel bag for his wife is acceptable.

Straight-out, I'm not criticizing Mr15HWW or his decision. It was not too long ago that I would have made the same decision.
Rather, I'm taking this as an opportunity to express how I've changed my views to spending.
Previously, I would consider this as wonton spending. Frivolous. Full stop. End of story.
I would think that previously, I would say, there's nothing to discuss.
And yet now, I would say... it depends.

Firstly, everyone has their own toys or hobbies. So it would not be right for each other to judge what each others' fancies.
A geeky guy might want a powerful computer for playing games, whereas his girlfriend (IF he has one), might not appreciate the powerful computer.
IF geeky guy has a budget for computers, then shouldn't the girlfriend have a budget for fancy bags as well?
Geeky guy can list all the pros of his tech purchases, but he will never be able to list the pros of fancy bags.
It's like... a golfer vs someone who enjoys fishing.

Next, perspective also depends on how often one desires to indulge in his or her toys/hobbies.
If Girlfriend of geeky guy, wants a new bag every month. Then I'd think that's kinda too much and may not be in line with the future goals of geeky guy.

Then there's the financial position of the couple.
If they can afford it, why not? How much does this impact their future life and savings?
Depends if they make such indulgences a habit.

Taking the Mr15HWW as an example, I will go through how I think about the situation with my new mindset.
Based on reading his blog, I would say they are doing well financially.
They have a sizable AUM and monthly income from their work.
Their lives have somewhat settled down and they don't particularly feel the displeasure of work.
They still save a large chunk of their monthly income.

At this point, I feel that their lives have already evolved to another state of life.
They are no longer struggling with wealth accumulation, they also have no significant displeasure earning their income.
They could potentially decrease their savings rate and continue this lifestyle until they are older.

I would liken this to the question, when does a child grow up?
Is it really just an age? Just cos legally by 21 you are considered an adult?
Now, we all know, age is just a number. Same as retirement age.
People can retire at 25, or 75. It's a state of mind.
Similarly, there are people at 50 years old who are childish and there are 18 year olds who are more mature.
There really isn't a cut off date of when a child grows up, that's why parents always think their kids are children. They just gradually grow up one day after another, until parents realize that suddenly their kids have kids of their own.

This is similar in financial health. A lot of times, we are stuck in our old position. This is especially true for savers and many in the FI community. We save, and save and save summore and don't evolve to the next stage of actually retiring. We may continue to work and say... just one more million, and the goalposts keep moving backwards.
There is a point where the child has become an adult.
There is a point where a person has become FI or comfortable, and they can relax on the savings.

Now, I don't know Mr15HWW savings rate. But let's say he saves $2000 per month, if he decreases his savings rate to $1900 per month for the next 5 years... Would that really be so bad?
(Although I think his savings rate is much higher than $2k a month.)
I'm assuming a Chanel bag would be depreciated over 5 years and his wife wouldn't request another bag during that period.

Once again, I'm saying this is situational. For a fresh grad still struggling in their career, or someone trying to become FI, or someone depressed with their work, etc... Then I'd probably say, that they shouldn't purchase that Chanel bag.
However, in the case of Mr15HWW, I would say, well, if it's something that the Mrs really really wants, and she doesn't always ask for such things, then... why not?
Although I do recall a couple of years back, she did request for a diamond ring. So maybe it's a bit more often than I actually know about. So I'd say, I don't know, which is why I'm saying this is really circumstantial.

The next change in my own mental perspective is the perception of value.
Mr15HWW did research on luxury bags by going to different shops and learning about the product.
Previously, I would think that learning about the product would be important to assessing the value of the product so that we can price it better and look for other alternatives.

BUT... now, surprisingly, I feel differently about this...
The whole idea of Mr15HWW going to retail outlets to learn more about the product, the quality, price point, alternatives... is irrelevant.
He's using his own value scale to assess the value of the different bags and alternatives.
Quality of material, utility, design, whatever...
That's really missing the point... It's. just. not. a. Chanel.

If we look at it from a logical point of view, yes, I can understand where he's coming from. I would have thought the same way myself just a couple of years ago.
It's like looking at computer specs, a few dollars for the motherboard, a few bucks for processor, RAM, hard disk drive, graphics card, etc...
Except that... it's not an Apple.

I'm sure Mr15HWW has his own toys and hobbies, and most likely, they would have a higher chance to be "approved" as a purchase, cos... well he values them based on his own value scale.
Everyone is biased. I'm no different.
If it's something I like, I'll value it more, I'll place more happiness points on it, so I can personally assess how much I'll enjoy this product. It might be more expensive but I feel it's worth it.
The problem comes when I'm trying to assess a product on behalf of my wife. And I now have to judge her happiness points based on the product which I have no appreciation for. There's a higher chance that I'll "not approve" the purchase and feel that there's no value.
Point I'm trying to make is... One cannot assess the value of something using the same mindset that does not value it.

This brings me back to a couple of older posts which I made
曾经拥有 I once used to have

Frugality for the Sake of Frugality
Both of which touch on the idea of doing things that you want to do with the money earned or saved.

Which brings me to another point...
Many of us know the experiment of the kids and marshmallows.
They put a kid in a room with a marshmallow on the table. They tell the kid if they don't eat it for 15 minutes, they will reward the kid with 2 marshmallows.
And legend has it that they followed up with the kids in future and found out that kids who were able to delay gratification were generally better off in their lives.

BUT... what many other folks don't know, is that there is a extension to this experiment.
Similar experiment with kids and marshmallows.
But the paper suggests that the capacity to hold out for a second marshmallow is shaped in large part by a child’s social and economic background.
This could be due to childhood experiences where their parents might have promised something but failed to keep their promises.
Or that there may not be food in the fridge tomorrow, so it's better to just eat when there's food instead of to wait.
So the kid has learnt that there is no second marshmallow.

So maybe the kid learnt that delaying gratification is NOT good for their own situation.
Cos they can't trust that there WILL BE another marshmallow.

And when I look at it from a spending perspective... well... then why are we delaying gratification for, if not to spend someday in the future?
Eventually, the idea of delaying gratification requires actually getting the gratification which was delayed.

Not to mention, sometimes, delaying gratification might not be the best course of action.
Financially it makes sense... But...
Visiting Disneyland when 12 years old is different from visiting it at 50 years old.
Driving a sports car is different at 25 vs 75.
Seeing polar ice caps now vs 20 years in the future... well there may not be any left...

Now, of course, as I said, all these are based on the situation.
This is based on Mr15HWW and what I perceive his financial situation is and current lifestyle.
There are other aspects which I will never know, like how often his wife wants stuff, etc...
And of course, I'm not saying his decision is right or wrong. Each of us will have to walk our own path.
Why I'm talking about this topic and his blog post is cos...
As I was reading his post, I realized my own reaction and reflection to the points he made differed greatly from my feelings couple of years back.
It's like... I could visualize my old self reading and agreeing with the points he made.
And yet... at the same time, when I read it, my new feelings towards spending and assessing value lead me to feel that such a purchase would be justified for a person in his financial and lifestyle situation, as the purchase would hardly make a dent in his assets or savings in the long run.
And once again this is dependent on how often such purchases are made.

And as I always say... this isn't any justification to YOLO and spend as much as one wants.
It's just... everyone has their own hobbies and toys and wants, and sometimes it's ok to indulge in them. As long as it's not all the time, and not unlimited.

Just thought I'd share.
That as life moves on, and I grow older... well... things change. Mentality changes, perception of life changes.
Same as when I realized that the truth is, no one really wants to retire early.

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Binary Thinking

Be Careful Of Phishing Emails

When Do You Know Life Has Changed?

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