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What Are The Biggest Companies In 30 Years Time?

27/5/2021

No I don't have the answer.

Well, anyway...
For those who was watching the Berkshire Annual Meeting couple of weeks back, Warren Buffet showed 2 slides.

On the left, he showed 20 of the largest companies by market cap in 1989.
On the right, he showed 20 of the largest companies by market cap in 2021.

None of the companies from 1989 made it to the top 20 list in 2021.
In the 1989 list of top 20 companies, Japan companies obviously stands out.
In the 2021 list of top 20 companies, USA companies obviously stands out.

So... what will be the list of companies in 2050+?
Which country will stand out?
Nope, I'm not giving any answers. I also don't know. Although I could make a guess of the country.
But even if I could guess the country. It's almost impossible to guess the companies which will make the list. I reckon that most of the companies which will be on the 2050 list haven't even been incorporated yet.

Anyway, just stuff to think about...

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Why EVERYONE Should "Invest" In Cryptocurrency

21/5/2021

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*Disclaimer, blah blah blah, this is my own opinion, past performance is not indicative of future performance, do your own research, just cos I buy doesn't mean everyone should go out and buy.
This is a risky product and there is real chance of losing all the money "invested".
Blah blah blah, don't blame me if you lose money.

I'll get straight to the point.
I've been kinda lazy these days so I don't want to write too long of a post.

I don't like crypto. My views are similar to Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/01/charlie-munger-calls-bitcoin-disgusting-and-contrary-to-the-interests-of-civilization.html

'Of course, I hate the bitcoin success and I don't welcome a currency that's useful to kidnappers and extortionists, and so forth. Nor do I like just shoveling out a few extra billions and billions of dollars to somebody who just invented a new financial product out of thin air
- Charlie Munger

So I'll not talk about why I don't like it any further.

HOWEVER, despite me not liking it, I do believe everyone should "invest" in it.
Note the parenthesis.

Anyway.
Simply put.
I think it would make logical sense to put 0.5% - 1% of ones' current assets into crypto.
You may or may not want to increase the absolute amount as your other assets outgrows the initial "investment".

I'm not saying Bitcoin. I'm saying crypto, so ... pick your poison.

The thing is... well... in 5-10-30 years... IF... and that's a big IF... the prices jump by 100x or 1000x.
Then this small allocation could result in a life changing jackpot.

IF it drops to zero. Then there's no real big loss.

There is greater risk to NOT be "invested".

IF crypto becomes widely accepted in whatever function, this could bring forth an entire new industry.
Note, that people in the industry are also fumbling around trying to find some direction on how this will turn out and how to develop this technology and product.
So no one really knows how this will turn out or end.

So yes... I have decided to put a small amount into crypto, into what I believe to be the next generation of cryptocurrencies.
This small amount will be written off completely, and not be considered as part of my overall portfolio.
I will probably not be adding anymore to this lottery ticket.
As I am betting into the future of this industry, so until the industry stabilizes, I will not be expecting to be selling these anytime soon.

Also, will need to take note of counterparty risk.
The crypto wallets are managed by the exchanges, and there have been cases where the owner just disappears with the crypto wallet and no one is able to trace him.
This is not like some bank where there is recourse. There is NO way to recover the wallet.

As this is expected to be a bet into the super long future, I am planning to transfer all the crypto onto my own wallet as that would be safer in the long run.
The risk for managing my own wallet is if I lose the "username" and "password".
Cos once again, there is no recourse. If I lose the way to access my own wallet, then there will be no way to retrieve my cryptocurrencies.

Nope, I don't have any exchanges to recommend.
Nope, I also don't have any next generation cryptos to recommend.
I don't even like doing this "investment". It does not make me feel good.

I'm just putting this idea out there.
Hope for the best, expect the worst.

*Disclaimer, blah blah blah, this is my own opinion, past performance is not indicative of future performance, do your own research, just cos I buy doesn't mean everyone should go out and buy.
This is a risky product and there is real chance of losing all the money "invested".
Blah blah blah, don't blame me if you lose money.

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Matrix Revolutions

8/5/2021

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Agent Smith: Why, Mr. Anderson? Why, why, why? Why do you do it? Why get up? Why keep fighting? Do you believe you're fighting for something? For more than your survival? Can you tell me what it is? Do you even know? Is it freedom? Or truth? Perhaps peace? Could it be for love? Illusions, Mr. Anderson. Vagaries of perception. Temporary constructs of a feeble human intellect trying desperately to justify an existence that is without meaning or purpose. And all of them as artificial as the Matrix itself, although only a human mind could invent something as insipid as love. You must be able to see it, Mr. Anderson. You must know it by now. You can't win. It's pointless to keep fighting. Why, Mr. Anderson? Why? Why do you persist?

Neo :Because I choose to.

Have you ever wondered about life?
Is there a difference being in the real world or the matrix?
If everything is just electrical impulses in your brain.
And you live a life plugged into the matrix, but within the matrix you live a good life and you never knew about the existence of a world outside the matrix.
What difference does it make?
What is real?

Humans were used as batteries and kept asleep all the time. Like farmed animals.
And yet... humans all lived "good" enough lives in the matrix. Trapped in body, but the mind doesn't know it. Does it matter?

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Getting Another Car

4/5/2021

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Around a year ago, I wrote this post about my decision to lease a Toyota Camry in Houston.

So... leasing a car is pretty much renting the car with an option to purchase a the end of the period. My lease was for 2 years.
However, there were some unforeseen issues.
When we got the Camry, it was around 2 months into our stay in Houston.
My wife's contract in the US is for 2 years. Furthermore, we are planning/hoping to go back to SG in Dec 2021.
The lease contract ends in March 2022.
I'm contractually obligated to complete my lease regardless.
I was paying US$359.99 per month to lease the Camry.
If I leave in Dec, I would have to pay another 3 months worth of lease which I would not be utilizing.
Furthermore, there is also a "listing" fee of US$350 which the leasing company imposes for returning the vehicle. It's for their "effort" to sell the car after you've returned it.
So if we leave in Dec, we'll probably need to pay around $1,430. (US$360 x 3 +US$350)
Just to close out the lease contract.
Of course there's the option of just running away and just refuse to pay for the lease breakage, but... we're not going that path.

So, the above situation was pretty much unfavourable cos... well we don't have much of a choice cos it's a contract for 2 years. (From what we know, 2 years is the shortest lease contract for a vehicle.)
We had already renewed our apartment rental to end in Nov so that we would have more flexibility to plan to return to SG in Dec.
But the car was a 2 year contract and we were pretty much stuck with it.

Or so we thought...
By some stroke of chance, my wife received an email by the another department of the dealer who leased us the car, offering to buy the car.
The thing about leasing a car is that we can return the car after the contract.
OR we can choose to buy the car at any time, by paying up all the future lease payments PLUS a pre-stated cost of the car. This amount is fixed on the day we signed the lease.

When I saw the email, I was dismissive. Cos... everyone knows that this would be a loss making move.
No one is going to be willing to help pay for all my future lease payments AND the buy out price of the car AND give me extra money on top of it.
I mean... that's expected right? Who expects to make money after buying a new car? It's well known that new cars are a loss once driven out of the dealership.
So I told my wife not to waste her time, cos there's no real point to sell the car and get another car and need to take the loss now.
Might as well just wait til end of the year and pay it off when we leave.

But my wife had nothing better to do and, to her, it was no loss so she just asked me to leave her alone and she was going to try to get a quote from them anyway. Which is fine by me. I mean... she's just wasting her own time right?

So she filled up the online form, which asks when we bought the car, how much mileage is on the car, the overall condition of the car, etc... The car is pretty much in perfect condition. We didn't drive it much cos... well COVID, so I didn't even send my wife to work daily, and the interior of the car is in immaculate condition.
And the next day, she got a reply from a representative.

Somehow... the amount quoted, was enough to pay off all our future lease payments PLUS the buyout amount and then some...
Yes... we managed to turn a "profit" for the leased vehicle.
I'm not saying we turned a profit on the lease overall. We still leased the vehicle for over a year and that expense is gone.
This "profit" is just that we are able to get back some money in cash at this point in time, even after all the future lease payments are paid off and the buyout is paid for. AND the buying company will handle all the paperwork and administration, and contact the leasing company, etc. We just need to agree and sign the papers and we would receive a cheque for the excess amount.

I was pretty mindblown.
WHY?
Ok, I now suspect that it's cos of the supposed chip shortage which has been going around, and due to this chip shortage, there will generally be less stuff being available for sale in the coming months before the chip production ramps up to cover for the shortfall.
Unconfirmed, it's just my suspicion.

Anyway... who cares why right? If someone wants to buy out my car and I get some cash for it...
And the amount is enough to buy an old car, then basically, my vehicle expense for the next few months would be settled AND I wouldn't need to incur a loss when I leave.

I was pretty excited about it. And my wife told me not to ganjiong, cos she since this company was willing to buy us out at this price, then maybe we could get better quotes. So she went to submit our car details to a few more companies.
And... woah... one company actually was willing to pay even higher.

So we decided to proceed with this plan.
We would sell the existing car and use the cash proceeds to get ourselves an old beat up car which will last us til the end of the year, hopefully without any major issues.
This beat up car, typically called a "beater car" in the US, would be fully paid up and we would not need to pay US$360 every month anymore. Also, we save on insurance, cos... well it's an older car and since it's not leased, we can take a lower coverage. Leased vehicles have some requirements by the leasing company, so we needed to take up some higher coverage.

And over the weekend, we got ourselves an old high mileage Nissan Maxima. It's a bigger car than the Camry, with a 3-litre V6 engine. It is old and dirty and beat up, and inside was dirty, etc...
Unfortunately, I overpaid for this vehicle, cos I was lazy, inexperienced, and didn't do enough research and mentally not prepared to haggle, and a lot of other reasons.
It was just really poorly executed.
But it was still pretty much within budget.
So the objective was met. We managed to sell the Camry and using the proceeds, we paid off for an old car.
However, we could have done better as we could have had money leftover to cover repairs, if we were better prepared for the buying process.
We ended up having to pay an extra US$113 out of pocket.
(This also includes new cheap covers and steering wheel covers, which were needed, cos the seats were dirty and steering wheel sticky, and Uber costs to get between the buying and selling locations, and cleaning material and anti-bacterial wipes & spray. I've deemed these as capital expense as part of the buying of the beater car.)

So previously, I would need to pay US$360 for the lease payments, plus $156 per month for insurance. And when I leave in Dec, I would need to pay another lump sum of US$1,430.

Now, every month, I just need to pay around US$59 for insurance and maybe an oil change in a couple of months for US$30, and keep my fingers crossed that there will be no other maintenance required.
Not to mention, I'll also be able to sell this car when I leave for a fraction of the buying cost.

Ok, one thing to note, in SG, we mentally already think cars are expensive. So it seems kinda "wow" that I got a "free" car.
(This was one of the reasons why I failed during the nego, cos I already thought that the price of the car is already very cheap. In SG, car are in the tens of thousands. So I was pretty much a pushover during the nego.)
But in the US, beater cars are cheap. They are really old and worn out.
Imagine the worst old taxi you've ever sat in... and a beater car is worse than that.
There are holes in the seats, the car has dents, scratches, it smells bad, some areas are sticky cos the previous owner ate something or spilt something in the car, etc.
Which is why I needed to get cheap seat covers and steering wheel covers and wet wipes and anti -bacterial spray, to clean up the car.

The pictures are below.
The Toyota was my previous leased car.
And the Nissan is my "new" beater car. The outside is already not so bad, the inside is worse.

Anyway, that's it for now.
I think overall this was a good decision but poorly executed, as we could have gotten a way way way better deal on the purchase of the vehicle.
But what's done is done. And hopefully this vehicle will last me til the end of the year.

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What Are The Biggest Companies In 30 Years Time?

Why EVERYONE Should "Invest" In Cryptocurrency

Matrix Revolutions

Getting Another Car

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