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Execution Is More Important Than Is Talked About

30/9/2021

We don't talk about it much...
Execution.

In the show the Big Short, as referenced above, Michael Burry says, "I may have been early but I'm not wrong."

The response to that, by another character is... "It's the same thing."

You see, being early IS wrong, in the world of trading and investing.
If Michael Burry could not pay for his swaps, his swap positions could have been closed out before he made his money. And he was really close to being closed out.

I knew some people, who knew some people, who knew a group of people who got some info about an investment. Everyone got the same info. Everyone executed it differently. Some folks made a lot of money. Some folks lost a lot of money.
Some were too early, some believed the info but changed their minds halfway, some couldn't stomach the volatility, etc.

Or on a more personal note, I made an investment. It went up 60% and hit my price target. I got greedy, thought to myself. It has more room to run. Left it alone for a couple of months. Now that position is only up 20%.
So I was right, my expectations were met. It hit my price target. I should have sold.
But in the end I was wrong. I didn't follow through with my execution.

We talk about long term investments.
See table below.

I took Jan data for S&P500 in 1999 and 2019.
20 years.
Not all the dates coincide. Cos of weekends and such.
So I only took the dates that coincided with each other and removed the dates that didn't match 1:1.
Didn't want to pull data for 20/21 cos it's during COVID.

So from the data... we can see. If a person made a 20 year investment on 7 Jan 1999, he would end up with 100.81% return.
But if someone else made an investment on 25 Jan 1999, he would end up with 115.95%.
That's quite a large difference.

I mean... we all read about passive investment, hold long term, time in the market vs timing the market. DCA, trying to beat the S&P, trying to beat STI, tracking error, etc...

And yet... the difference could just be whether you choose to add to your portfolio on the 15th of the month instead of rebalancing at the end of the month.

When we try to benchmark against others... then there's no end to comparing. Might as well benchmark against our own performance but on different execution days.

In the end, investment is pretty simple.
Just make money. AND to hold on to it.

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Is The West More Open Minded

14/9/2021

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We hear it often.
Westerners are more open minded.
Is that true?

Well... based on my encounters...
It really depends.
First we need to realize that MANY westerners don't travel. They have large countries and they don't need to travel to Asia or other parts of the world.
So IF we meet a westerner in Asia, it's really anecdotal. Cos they are actually the outliers and likely more worldly than other folks in their country.

Next, we also need to see what country or cities we are looking at.
So if we look at the more modern cities, San Frans, New York, London, Paris... you know... the cities that are presented on TV and the big screen...
Well... then once again, the data is biased.

People from these cities tend to be more educated and are exposed to many other ideas and are also more accepting to different lifestyles and cultures.
HOWEVER, these cities are not reflective of the western population at large.

We might believe that certain lifestyles would be more acceptable in western society.
But really, that's not true.

For instance...
Early retirement... or homosexuality, or race issues, or sexism...
These issues still prevail in many western regions.

Even in the US, it's not easy being unemployed. People ask questions. What are you doing? Why are you not working? etc...
The idea that everyone must work is still very much alive.

When I was in Paris, there's still the expectation of male chivalry. Females are still treated as the fairer sex and males are expected to open doors and do the heavy work.

As much as homosexuals are accepted in major cities, there are many other cities and folks who are not as receptive of such an idea.
If it were so easy, then why do homosexuals have issues "coming out" to their friends and family?
Thing is... it isn't easy. Homosexuality is not as accepted as what it's portrayed to be.

It's like... scenery.
We look from afar at a snowy landscape or a forest scene.
And it always looks so beautiful. The view is so nice.
But when we actually go to the location when we're at the snowy location, it's typically wet and muddy.
The forest is dirty and filled with bugs and insects and overgrown plants.

When we see a westerner in Asia... there's this perception that they are so "free to live their own lives", and so independent, they don't have societal expectations, etc...
Well... you see, when you're halfway across the world, thousands of miles from your friends and family... it really is a lot easier to "live their own lives", and "not have any societal expectations", and it pretty much is necessary to be independent.

Similarly, if we leave Singapore, and move to a country, halfway across the world.
It's a lot easier to "be free to live our own lives" without having to care about what your friends and family think about you. The distance makes a lot of difference.

However, IF you are a westerner and grow up in the west, with friends and family all around you. You'll also have societal expectations.
People will comment when you're going to have a girlfriend/boyfriend, when you're going to get married, when you're going to have kids.
People will comment if you are unemployed, or have differing sexual orientation.

It's pretty much is similar. Same same but different...
So it really depends on how lucky one is, to be born in the right city, or the right family.
Cos in the end, it really is similar.
I don't find the local westerners any more open minded than many Singaporeans.

In fact, many Singaporeans are more worldly than most Westerners. Cos we live in a small country so we tend to HAVE to leave the country when we go on vacation.
Whereas many westerners don't even need to leave the country and they end up just travelling around their own country for most of their lives.

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Get Your Free Apple Share

13/9/2021

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This is an affiliate marketing post.

I'd really appreciate if readers would open an account under my referral.

So recently Tiger Brokers dropped me an email to write about them.
I've heard about Tiger Brokers before.
I was discussing new brokerage companies with my remiser and he mentioned that Tiger Brokers is like the new kid in town with some of the lowest fees.

So when Tiger Brokers sent me a note to write about them, I went to have a look at what they are offering.

Not too bad a deal.

Simply put, from now til 30 Sept 2021, if you open an account and deposit S$2,000 in one lump sum, they will give you an Apple share.
As at the time of writing, Apple share is around US$148, which equates to around S$200.

*Please take note, the S$2,000 deposit needs to be done in one lump sum.
As experienced by Mr15HWW, here, he didn't get a welcome bonus when he split up the initial deposit.

So the process is as per the above.
Download the Tiger Trade App and register an account.
Then you'll get the Account Opening rewards when the account is approved, and you'll have to click "collect" to get the rewards.
We're talking about the commission free trades at this point.

Then when you deposit S$2,000 as an initial deposit within the Promo period, which means 30 Sept 2021 in this case, then the free Apple Share will be added to your account in 7 business days.

(According to my correspondence with them, if the deposit is made after 30 Sept 2021, then the customer will get the promo which is available depending on when the deposit is made. It could be something of lower value depending on whatever promo is running during that period. )

However, if you look at the T&C, highlighted below, you "agree" to withdraw the funds only after making 10 trades.
I'm not sure how they are tracking this. ;)
BUT, since "you agree" to make 10 trades, then... well, I suppose it's necessary to make 10 trades.

And since there are 60 commission free trades to use, then there isn't much cost to making these 10 trades for the Apple share.
Potentially, one could make 5 buy & sell trades and incur the bid/ask as small transaction costs to withdraw the Apple share.
If the account holder immediately buys and immediately sells, it's possible to just lose less than a dollar per trade.
So, it's probably still worth it, considering that the Apple share is worth around S$200.

Take note, after claiming the commission free trades, they recommend waiting for at least 10 minutes for the rewards to take effect before making a trade.

Now... of course the next question would be, is Tiger Brokers really worth using on a regular basis...
If we look at it from a cost perspective, Tiger Brokers has some of the lowest rates.
Here's the cost for SG shares.
Cost of trading other exchanges can be found here.

Is Tiger Brokers safe?
Well, I'd say it's safe enough.
Tiger Brokers is listed on the Nasdaq (TIGR), and is licensed by the MAS to operate in Singapore.

Now...
Of course I'm still ERSG.
And y'all know how I work around credit card promos.
Some cards are good for the promos. Some cards are good for regular use.
You'll have to decide what's good for short term promos and what's good for long term use.

So similarly, recently, there has been a bunch of low commission brokerages coming into Singapore.
Always good to take up the promo at the start and try out the services.
Considering S$200 return on S$2,000 deposit is a 10% return. It's pretty worth it.
Better than jumping through hoops for some credit card promos or rebates.

Note that the promo is for the App. I'd strongly encourage following their required steps mentioned above cos based on Mr15HWW's experience, they aren't too flexible with their conditions. So might as well do one time good one to make sure the effort is worth it.

Anyway... here's my referral link.
Thank you in advance if you decide to sign up.
It is much appreciated as an encouragement to my writing.

*The usual disclaimers.
This is a referral post. ERSG get's some form of monetary incentive for full sign up. Meaning I only get something when someone opens an account and deposits S$2,000.
Investment is risky. So know the risks before you do any trading or investments.
This post is not intended to encourage investment into any particular stocks or products.
ERSG will not be held responsible for any losses incurred by anyone during the course of their interaction with Tiger Brokers, examples such as, but not limited to, opening the account or during the course of opening the account or any trading losses, etc.

Thank you.

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How Vulnerable is Singapore?

10/9/2021

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When I was younger, I didn't think much about this. Living in Singapore is normal to me.
Like everyone else living there. Life is just normal.

However, as I've travelled. My perspectives changed a lot.
You see... Singapore is just a city.
It really is very very small for a country.

Look at all the other cities. New York, San Francisco, Paris, London, Beijing, Shanghai, Tokyo, Detroit, Manila, Munich, the list keeps going.
Typically, there are so many cities within a country.
Imagine Singapore as just one of these cities. When the other countries have hundreds if not thousands of other cities that make up a country.

When you take a train out of Tokyo to Osaka... that's to another city within Japan.
When you drive a car 50 kilometers north, from Singapore, you end up in JB.

Houston is around the size of Singapore. The Mayor of Houston is the elected leader for the city...
Imagine... this is someone who has similar responsibilities to the Prime Minister in Singapore.
The Governor of Texas takes care of a State 943x the size of Singapore, with over 900 cities, each with a Mayor. Yes some cities are smaller some are larger.
Let's not even talk about the President of the US.

When a city has a downturn, like Detroit, where manufacturing has decreased, it's pretty much ok for the other cities within Michigan State, hardly affects other States and barely any impact on US as a country.

Compare that to Singapore...
There is only one Singapore. One small city.
No water, no resources, nothing.

One screw up. We're pretty much gone.
If we become irrelevant in the world... That's probably the end of Singapore.
We are in a risky position.

A lot of us don't think much about this. Well cos... life goes on. Daily life just goes on so nothing much to think about.
But when I experienced the sheer size of the places I've been to. Driving hours from one city to the next...
No... I, may think Singapore is pretty great. Cos it is our home.

But, it really is nothing compared to the scale of the rest of the world.

As much as many people don't know that there is a Singapore town in the State of Michigan, I'm not surprised that many people in the world do not know of Singapore as a country.
Are they really ignorant? Or are we just irrelevant to them?
How much do people in Asia know about Ohio State? Or Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes in France?
As much as many people don't know much about the cities in these States, Western people also won't know of or hear of a small city country such as Singapore, unless they are from certain industries.
People living in big countries really don't need to care about knowledge about other countries. Cos they already have enough to learn about their own country.

People in France can learn about Paris, then learn more about other cities and States within France, or they learn about their neighbouring countries, like Germany, or Switzerland.
Whereas for Singapore, we learn about Singapore about our own history, then... well... that's it. So it's natural for us to travel a bit to learn about Malaysia, Indonesia, our own neighbouring countries.

The area around Singapore, obviously know about Singapore, cos we are a powerhouse in the area.
But as we go out further, towards Europe, US... less and less people know about us.

So how vulnerable are we?
Damn vulnerable. No other country cares about us. We have no demand, just a mere 6 million people. Hardly worth setting up an office to sell products to the people of Singapore.

We had to "create" our own water. Before we only had reservoirs, but now, we have desalination and NEWater.
We don't have our own food. We still rely a lot on Malaysia and other countries to supply us with food.
We don't have oil. Where are we going to get electricity from? We don't have large empty areas to set up solar panels or wind turbines.

Can you imagine, how or why Singapore was able to get so many vaccines? When other countries like Korea or Japan have such low vaccination rates? I suspect Singapore has lots of connections AND paid a lot of money to obtain the vaccines before other countries.
Can you imagine if we didn't have the money and/or connections? That's what's happening in the poorer countries.

The thing is, I've come to realize that Singapore is very fragile.
And I think... through the years, I have taken it for granted. And I didn't care to contemplate about how fragile it is. And I also think a lot of the younger folk also don't realize the progress that Singapore has gone through.
And I think we were lucky. Singapore started out along with many of our neighbours within an era when many other countries were shaking off their colonial pasts. Most of Asia were on a relatively even playing field.
LKY made the right decision for Singapore to be an international country with English as a common language with lots of foreign investment.

Now, every country is an international country.
If Malaysia gets it's act together, it could easily crush Singapore into irrelevance.

As much as I have a renewed respect and appreciation of what our past leaders did for Singapore... I also feel a sense of concern for our future.
Well... we really have to see what our current and next generation of Singapore can do to push Singapore forward.
It's not going to be easy, and it may even be harder than when we first started.
Cos when we first started, the competition wasn't that strong, the issues Singapore faced were of a different nature.
But now, the competition is fierce. Even IF the elected leaders make the best decisions. We might not be able to out beat the competition.

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Don't Look At The Finger

6/9/2021

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Reminded me of retirement.
Some people think they need to earn more.
Some people are super frugal.
Some people are both.

But after they reach a certain AUM, they forget to retire and still focus on the finger.

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Being Rich vs Being Wealthy

3/9/2021

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So I chanced upon this article today.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/being-rich-vs-being-wealthy-084637161.html

And I wrote somewhat about it previously here.

And then I thought about it a bit more...

And then I realized...

Is there a difference between being rich and being wealthy?

Well... If you're asking this question, then get back to work.
Thing is, I've come to this understanding that... well... only certain people talk about being rich or being wealthy and trying to determine benchmarks.

It's really the hocus pocus Robert Kiyosaki, kind of people trying to persuade or convince or define certain words, topics for his books and classes.

If you're rich, or wealthy, you probably know it. If you're not then well, you're not.
If you need to define it, I'd say... well... something is wrong. Are you looking for external validation?

Let's look at it this way...
If you have money to live well, you can tell yourself you're rich or wealthy.
If you can retire, you can tell yourself you're rich or wealthy...

Why do you need to define it?
So that you can tell others that you're rich?
Why the need to benchmark? When you define and benchmark, that means you're comparing against others. And well... what's the point?

If you have $1 mil, and you're comparing against your friends who have $20 mil, you'll never be or feel rich regardless of the definition.

So the thing is... for me, I feel, that this rich vs wealthy is really just some hocus pocus made up to make people feel better. Patting people on their own backs.

What? Really right?
I mean this definition or comparison of words. Rich vs Wealthy...
It's to say, oh this person is rich but not wealthy... but I'm wealthy. Cos I don't spend as much as him.
So we can feel good about ourselves?
Telling people or telling ourselves that we are wealthy even though we don't have enough to be called rich?
Nahhh...

Rather, I would think... people should just look at their own unique lifestyles and expense rates, and determine if they can live well with their assets, earnings.
That's all that really matters, no?

Warren Buffet was asked this question during one of his annual meetings.
Rich vs Wealthy... based on his response. I had the feeling that he didn't get the question.
He started talking about health and all that kinda stuff...
You know why?
Cos he's there. When he's there, he doesn't need to think of these kinda hocus pocus stuff to make himself feel better.

That's not to say people with less networth are any less rich/wealthy.
The thing is... if someone feels they themselves are rich enough, wealthy enough, they know it.

It's those who are trying to tell themselves something...
To quote Singaporemanofleisure...
It's those with a hole in the heart that need to define and tell themselves rich or wealthy.

Now what do you think?
;o)

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Execution Is More Important Than Is Talked About

Is The West More Open Minded

Get Your Free Apple Share

How Vulnerable is Singapore?

Don't Look At The Finger

Being Rich vs Being Wealthy

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