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Why Retirement Is Like Driving

26/10/2021

The retirement journey, or even the investment journey...
Is typically made more complicated than it really is.
Investment advisers, financial planners, friends, relatives, newspapers, bloggers, etc...
We look around, we see someone else doing something else, someone else made more money via this investment, someone else did this, someone else did that...

And yet... when we really look at it...
Let's say... today you want to go to see the doctor.
You wake up, wash up, determine the time you need to leave, you get out of the house, get in your car, or Grab, or bus, or MRT, whatever.
Then you reach there and do whatever you want to do.

Not everyone is going to the doctor's today.
Those who are going to see the doctor will likely be seeing the doc for a different issue.
Not everyone will leave the homes at the same time. Some live closer, some live further. So they start out at different times.
Some are bringing their kids to see the doc, some might bring their partner or parents, etc.
Some will take car, or walk, or Grab, etc...

And most likely, you wouldn't care who else is going to the doc today. You wouldn't care how they got to the doc. You wouldn't care what time they left home, etc...

You'd probably just go see the doc, and do your thing, then just go home. The end.

And that's what/how the retirement journey is supposed to be.
We all start at different points in our lives. Some are born luckier, some have higher earning jobs, some want to retire earlier, some later, some want low risk returns, others want higher risk for more returns.
Some have kids to take care of, some have elderly parents, etc.
And most of the time, it's none of our business, and also it's none of their business how we each want to plan our retirement journey.

Most of the time, when we do our daily things, our daily journey, no one cares how, why we do what we do.
And yet, when it comes to retirement or financial planning, it seems so complicated. So many different kinds of experts, so many different opinions on what's the right way.
When we talk to friends and family, so many more comments about how this works, how this doesn't work, etc etc...

It's really not that hard...

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No Company Will Kill Its Golden Goose

24/10/2021

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I'm no fan of conspiracy theories.
But I do have suspicions. As in... I just keep in mind that there is a possibility of these things happening, but I don't let the idea consume my life.

If a cow is producing milk, do you kill it?
Same as no one should kill their goose laying the golden eggs.

So long time ago, Microsoft had their MS Office. We would buy the product and use it for years.
Now, it's on a subscription basis.
Cos... well, it's good income.

So this subscription model is really working out, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, Costco, etc...

And so....
Pfizer, Moderna, or any other pharma company...

Think about it... Why would they want to release a "true" vaccine? You know, those old types that really protect from the virus, you know, those polio vaccines, BCG, etc...

It's now a golden goose situation. They sell 2 shots for vaccination and every 8 months or so, they get to sell booster shots.

Ok, maybe ... it's not possible to make a "true" vaccine for COVID.
OR maybe, it is possible.
I don't know, and I think most of us won't ever know the truth.

But I do wonder about the possibility of it.

Did you know, there was an organization of light bulb makers who colluded to ensure that lightbulb lifespan didn't exceed 2000 hours?
Cos previously, every lightbulb maker was trying to outdo each other, trying to make lightbulbs last longer. And their business suffered, cos consumers got longer lasting lightbulbs and bought less.
They eventually got together and formed some kind of committee, and discussed and came to some form of conclusion that... yea, you get the picture.

There's no money to be made if you sell a product that lasts forever.

Don't kill the golden goose.

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Is Singapore A Fluke?

7/10/2021

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So I was watching this YouTube clip.
Some time back, LKY was asked a question about Sweden's IKEA and Finland's Nokia.

And his response to Nokia was that it was a fluke. With a population of 7-8 million, it would be hard to find talent, he did not expect Nokia to maintain it's success for for long with the rising competition from Korea and Japan. (And he would have probably added in China in this day and age.)

Now... what if we flip this line of thinking onto Singapore as a country?
Singapore was developing alongside the bulk of Asia in the 1960s. Most of the countries were under developed, or developing countries.
We had good leadership, Singapore played by a differently, we studied English, invited foreign investment into the country, etc.
And this direction taken was executed successfully, Singapore thrived during this period.

Now, let's use LKY's same words.
We have a population of under 6 million. Can we keep up with the competition? From Korea, from Japan, (from China), watch it in the long term. How many bright fellas have you got with inventive, creative minds?

As much as we say Nokia needs good leadership to thrive in the business environment, Singapore, as a country also needs good leadership to succeed as a country.

Which begs the question. Is Singapore a fluke? Just like Nokia?
A rare leader who made a difference. Right place, right time.

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Singapore COVID Situation (Part 2)

2/10/2021

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I haven't been on FB much.
And just today I was browsing FB and the comments of FB-ers on Straits Times about COVID.

99% of the comments on articles on COVID are about how bad the COVID situation is in SG and how the Gov should not have reopened/removed restrictions so soon.

I came to 2 conclusions.
1. These folks who want to keep SG closed/restricted are a minority but are very vocal.
2. These folks who want to keep SG closed/restricted are a majority and are representative of the SG feelings towards COVID and how the Gov is handling it.

I hope it is 1.
Cos conclusion 2 is concerning.
Cos these people are expecting the impossible.

Think about it.
Ok. Let's keep SG closed, reduce COVID numbers to under 100 per day. Only have food imports or exports but no real movement of people.
Then what? Are we going to keep SG closed for long term to maintain the low infection rate?
Remember. SG has a small market, there is very little domestic demand.
Ok, so let's do it for??? 6 months?
Then what? Reopen? Reopen to a world that will STILL bring COVID into SG eventually?
Or what? Keep SG closed forever? There is no way around it.

If SG closes borders or keeps restrictions up to have low spread, low death. No matter what, when it opens borders again, COVID WILL re-enter SG again.
So open in 1 month time, or open in 3 years time, the result is still going to be similar. Just as long as the hospitals don't overload.
COVID will come to Singapore, and will spread and people will get it, most will get well, some will die.
COVID is here to stay.
Else keep SG closed forever. And THAT, would be the end of Singapore.
In the long run, COVID won't destroy Singapore. Staying closed will.

I read commenters saying that COVID deaths can be prevented. That they are unnecessary deaths. The folks who die are someone's father, mother, g'mother, g'father, they helped build SG, etc.
Just don't open up.
Yes. That's true.
Singapore has 800 flu deaths every year.
That also can be prevented. Just close borders and keep everyone at home.
Flu deaths can also be prevented. They are also someone's father, mother, brother, sister, etc.
But no one talks about it right? Why? Cos everyone has gotten it before. It's "no big deal". And yet, there are many "preventable" deaths.

These people lack perspective. And I hope it's just a very vocal minority.

Just cos COVID-19 is a novel disease. Doesn't mean we ignore the statistics of it.
The fear and concern should be proportional to the data.
No one calls for restrictions when the death rate for flu is so "high".
Just cos it's headline news doesn't mean the statistics change.

Similarly, I had friends who told me to be careful of racism in the US.
Yes racism incidents rose 100% during the pandemic period.
But the numbers are something like 1,000 rising to 2,000. In a population of 300 million.
Yes. I know I still need to be careful. But that doesn't mean I need to be wary of everyone I meet on the streets.

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Singapore COVID Situation

1/10/2021

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Watching how Singapore is handling COVID from halfway across the world...
I feel it's concerning. How reactive the SG Gov is.

You see, in the US, COVID is pretty much... "over".
That's not to say people aren't getting sick. They are getting sick and some die.
It's part and parcel of all illnesses.
All illnesses have a death rate and the US has decided that it will live with it.
There is still a bit of wrangling about masks in schools, etc... but by and large, the direction is that COVID will be handled at the medical layer.

If people get COVID, they see a doctor, if they have mild symptoms, they stay at home and they get well.
If it turns serious, or if oxygen levels drop, they go to a hospital.
People expect to get well from COVID. it's not like some scary disease.

Just like people expect to get well from dengue, flu, chicken pox, etc.
It's no longer headline news.

When was the last time Singaporeans were concerned about dengue deaths?
How many dengue deaths are there in a day in SG?
How about flu?
The media never reports it. The data is available from MOH, but it's not reported.
Singaporeans don't care and don't need to be updated regularly.

When I hear friends/family say... "Oh so scary." or "I'm afraid to get COVID."
When was the last time you were afraid to get the flu or chicken pox?

I completed my vaccination in May 2021.
Since then, I haven't worn a mask when going out. Unless it's mandated by the location.
Since then, I've travelled to New York City, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Grand Canyon, Orlando, Miami.

COVID really isn't some mass apocalypse event that people need to be afraid of.
And the Western world acknowledges this. Life needs to go on.

Base on my interactions with friends and family.
My data suggests that 70% of them are afraid, concerned or "very scary".
Of course no one wants to get COVID.
I don't even want to get flu, or dengue or chicken pox.
But since when were we afraid to get illnesses where the survival rate is 99+%?

From my view, I see the current task force as indecisive and reactive.
Do something, wait and see, then turn around and do something else.
It was months ago that Singapore decided to "live with the virus".
They aren't giving Singaporeans confidence to "live with the virus".
Not happening. Multiple restrictions are still in place to "protect the 200,000 unvaccinated".
Imagine, putting restrictions on 5 million people to protect the 200,000 willfully unvaccinated.
Punishing those who listened to the Gov, to protect those who didn't.

Now... In my opinion, this will pass. Be it 2 years or 5 years. It will pass.
BUT... where will Singapore be by then?
Will we be irrelevant to the world? Business needs to keep moving, the economy needs to keep moving. That's how this world functions. Singapore, as a small country, cannot be lagging behind. I've written about this before.
Singapore has an 82% vaccination rate, one of the highest in the world. Higher than all in the Asia region. We have a huge advantage to open up and push into the future. And I hope we do it soon. Else, we are no different from the other countries with low vaccination rates.

Next, comes to what I feel about the task force.
We're probably looking at one of the task force leaders as the future PM.
The current situation gives a picture of what they will be doing when in leadership position.
Do they give you confidence that Singapore will be ready for the future? Confidence that they know the way and will lead the country forward into the unknown?
Or do they give you the feeling that they also don't know what they are doing and are just as clueless as everyone else?

Now. I'm not saying they are clueless or don't know what they are going. Maybe they have lots of plans and data and statistics.
But politics and leadership is about presentation and impression. The people need to look towards their leader or future leader and feel confident that the leader knows what they are doing.
And truthfully, I'm not feeling it.

I'm thinking of 2 scenarios.
1. Singapore opens up. Business returns to a new normal. Less reporting of COVID. People get sick, most get well, some die, most Singaporeans won't know the numbers. Life goes on, 3 years later, most Singaporeans forget about COVID. Since life is back to normal, people continue to vote for the current Government.

2. Singapore remains closed, many restrictions are in place, normal life is disrupted. Continued reporting of COVID. People get sick, most get well, some die, but Singaporeans continue to know the numbers. Even though the numbers are low, Singaporeans feel afraid cos it's always a constant reminder in the media. 3 years later life has not gotten back to any form of new normal, COVID is still headline news. People are still wondering "what the hell is happening". I'm pretty sure the Gov will lose votes.

The sooner the Gov can create a new normal in relation to the next election, the more votes the Gov will retain. If they create a new normal now, and remove media coverage of COVID, people will forget about COVID by 2025.
If they drag this on and maybe create a new normal in 2024, then people will still remember about how long they had to live under restrictions and vote accordingly in 2025.

Nevertheless, I look forward to going home later this year and hopefully there will be some semblance of the Singapore that I left 2 years ago.

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Why Retirement Is Like Driving

No Company Will Kill Its Golden Goose

Is Singapore A Fluke?

Singapore COVID Situation (Part 2)

Singapore COVID Situation

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