Looks like COVID-19 is going to be here for good.
I doubt that any of the countries will be able to eradicate it entirely.
Most likely it will end up like chicken pox. Everyone will get it eventually or be vaccinated.
The question is how soon, and will the hospitals be ready for the patients when it happens.
I wrote about this in a couple of articles previously.
Why the Coronavirus Situation IS Serious
The Virus & The Market
Let's go through why I think it's going to be here for good.
Let's look at these charts.
On the top left is the daily new COVID cases for the entire USA.
On the top right is the daily new COVID cases for Texas.
On the bottom left is the same for New York.
The bottom right is the daily new COVID cases for the whole USA excluding New York, cos that's the epicenter. (I had to take the raw data and make this char myself)
As you can see... besides New York, which is the epicenter, the rest of the USA is hardly making any progress in bringing the infection rates down.
In early April, the US Government highly encouraged people to stay at home cos that's supposed to be some make it or break it week where they were trying to get a grip of the situation.
After that, there's been little progress made in tackling the virus.
For the entire USA, daily infection rates look like it's on a downward trend BUT not by much.
In Texas, things are just going up.
New York is going down due to extreme measures.
But the rest of the USA has hardly seen any improvement on a daily basis.
Now, what's happening in many US states is that they are starting to open up. Even with this kind of infection numbers.
So let's look at the points.
1. USA has made little progress in containing the spread of the virus.
Whatever the reason. Doesn't matter what we blame it on, politics, cultural, they don't care, they don't like to stay at home, whatever. Not important, WHY it's happening. Asking why isn't going to change things.
2. Even though they made little progress, they are starting to open up.
Many states are allowing businesses to start again.
3. With the lockdown measures, their "Best" efforts is just... this...
There's a lot of people who are really staying at home. But maybe 10% don't care. I don't know the numbers who don't care... BUT... it looks like just this 10% is enough to continue the spreading of the virus.
4. Once they open up, things will just get worse.
Obvious right? With their best efforts, they have more or less maintained the situation.
People are getting edgy, they are protesting, they want to go out, they don't want to sacrifice for the overall good for the long run.
That's how they tend to live their lives. Same as how they use their credit cards.
That's it... The end.
I highly doubt that the USA will reinstate the lockdown measures after they remove it this time.
The people really aren't happy "losing their freedoms".
The COVID situation will probably get worse in USA in the short to middle term.
Also, due to this, the virus will continue to spread to the rest of the world. I doubt countries are willing to stop doing business with the USA. There still will be some travel. And considering that the USA will have the coronavirus running around their population for months/years to come... there's little that can be done to contain the virus.
Imagine, anyone travelling to or from USA might be carrying the virus.
How to contain it?
Currently Singapore has a 14 day stay at home order for anyone who arrives from some at risk countries.
Cannot be they continue to have stay at home order for all tourists or business people from multiple countries.
IF the USA gives up the fight and just allows the virus to spread, most likely the other countries will just have to suck it up and accept that the virus will be here to stay.
At best, they can just slow down the spread within their own countries. But I think there's little that can be done to fully eradicate the virus like how SARS or MERS ended.
Soooo.... Just have to live with it lor...
It would be interesting to see what happens in the USA for the next month. Cos the states are opening up and I'm sure there will be more infections and the hospitals may be overwhelmed again.
I wonder how the people will take it cos currently, it seems like there are many people not taking it seriously.
(I'm not saying that there aren't people taking it seriously. Many people ARE taking it seriously and taking the necessary precautions. BUT, there are enough people who don't care and THAT is enough to keep the virus spreading.)
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