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Early Retirement SG

What is 10% Return Worth?

13/1/2021

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How much do you/I value 10% return?
I recently asked myself this question. 

We always hear about theoretical 5% or 7% or 10% annual returns, then we project it over 50 years and anyone can get rich. 
Of course, life isn't so simple. 

Recently I thought about guaranteed 10% return. 
Getting a guaranteed 10% return on an investment for 1 year is quite a good return. 
Getting guaranteed 10% return over a 2 year investment isn't too bad. 
Getting guaranteed 10% return over a 3 year investment is starting to become like a FD.
4 years is under 2.5%, some people are ok with this. Well, it's still a good FD rate. 
5 years, also still a good FD rate.

What if the chance is 90% chance of 10% return? 
When the market is doing poorly... Example like 6 months ago. 
There are a lot of bargain opportunities. So there's good chance to make 20%, 30% returns on other stocks. 
And there's a stock that has a 90% chance for 10% returns. 
Which is better? 

Of course everyone has their own risk tolerance and greed levels. 
I recently did some calculations and had this dilemma. 

Now that's only looking at 10% returns... 

A stock I was looking at had a very high chance for 20%-25% returns. With almost 90% chance of 10%-15% returns. 
And so I put some money into it. 
Cos I wanted to save some additional capital for other opportunities which might come about in future. 
On hindsight, I should have put a lot more. 20-25% returns are very good returns. 
Even if I ended up with 10%-15%, that's already pretty good as well.

Shouldn't be greedy to try to shoot for other opportunities which may or may not come about. 

A bird in hand is really worth way more than the illusionary 2, or 10 in a bush. 
They may not be in the bush, or might not even be able to catch them. 

Lesson learnt. Ouch.



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    This is the link to my first post... how it all started...
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    Mindset changes
    throughout the years

    How I make use of my wife

    Author

    Male, born in 1982. 
    INTP
    Graduated with a degree majoring in Banking & Finance, Financial Adviser for a period of time resulting in in-depth knowledge of insurance products and marketing techniques of the industry.

    Inspired by MMM and ERE.

    Decided to embark on a mission to retire early in Singapore, a place where such an idea is considered impossible. As I believe that life has a lot more to offer instead of just a working career. I've decided to start a blog to note down my journey to achieve this mission and help others along the way who are willing to listen and try doing things differently from everyone else.

    I have decided to remain anonymous until I finally am able to actually retire, reason being that this idea might not gel well with the company which I am working for currently and also to avoid real life flaming from people who say that such ideas are impossible and that an individual is lazy for choosing early retirement instead of contributing to society in the form of labour.

    More about me.
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