Why is there so much panic? Hype? Fear? About the Coronavirus...
The death rate is estimated to be around 3%... Which is typically considered light risk?
So why is there so much steps by Governments to contain the virus?
The Coronavirus situation IS serious. Make no mistake, I'm not downplaying it.
People are comparing it to the flu, that the death rate is higher but it isn't something to panic about, OR XXX numbers have died of the flu this year whereas Coronavirus hasn't even killed enough to make those numbers yet.
The thing about the Coronavirus, is that it is highly infectious. It spreads easily and it has around 20% hospitalization rate.
It has around a 2-5% intensive care rate, and an estimated 2-3% death rate.
The numbers look like something around there. Plus minus 1% depending on which country the patient is in.
Also, it is spread by people without symptoms.
So why the concern by so many Governments?
Well... Simply because, the hospitals can't handle the sudden influx of patients.
Have you ever gone to a hospital where the staff are sitting around doing nothing?
Usually, no... meaning, most hospitals are running on 90+% capacity.
So what happens when there are 5000 COVID patients? Well... 80% can stay at home and 20%, which is 1,000 need to be hospitalized, of which 30-50 people need ICU.
How many cities have spare capacity of 1,000 PLUS 50 more ICU spaces?
Singapore is smart, they contained the spread of COVID early. So the infections are around 500 at this time, and if they can slow down the infection rate, patients can get cured and discharged from hospital.
Why do you think China suddenly built hospitals in 2 weeks? Cos they needed more capacity.
In many other countries where they took this virus for granted, we are seeing heavy casualties.
France and US, New York in particular, should have more issues in the coming weeks.
Although France might be in time to contain it cos they are imposing heavy fines to keep people at home.
So... Is the Coronavirus "itself" really serious/dangerous... well... I don't think so.
BUT the Coronavirus PLUS the lack of capacity in the healthcare system is the serious issue here.
That's not saying that overall the healthcare system is lacking. The healthcare system worked well enough before this COVID issue and it will work again after the COVID issue.
Currently, there is very little people with immunity to COVID, so the infection rate is high. It's easy to contract the disease. It's... "possible"... for a large bulk of the population to slowly get the disease and the healthcare system will be able to handle the cases.
Alternatively, we could wait for a vaccine for to inoculate a bulk of the GLOBAL population.
So is the Coronavirus situation serious? Yes and No...
But not for the usual reasons you're thinking of.
Most people think COVID itself is scary... But for me, I think, what's scary is that the healthcare system won't be able to handle it IF there is a much bigger outbreak.
So, don't take for granted and think gathering in small groups is OK...
No... it's not ok. Just stay at home and let this all blow over.
If everyone thinks hang in small groups is ok, then... many small groups make one big group. End up like Italy, Spain and France... So you know... just relax at home for a bit this period. There's always another day tomorrow. It's like... preparing for retirement.
If you sit around at home and have nothing to do... well... that's what it feels like to be retired. Then start thinking of something to do in your free time that doesn't cost money and can be done at home.
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