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The Effect Of Luck On Our Lives

24/2/2021

Sometime ago, I posted about luck.
Are You Smart? Or Just Plain Lucky?

I chanced upon this YouTube clip which I felt was really worth the watch.
I highly recommend going through it.

He made a computer simulation whereby luck is only a 5% factor of a potential candidate.
And yet, with just a potential up to 5% bonus in "stats", the result was significant over a large population.
Within a large population, there are a lot of hardworking and smart people. The "stats" that each one is born with... well it's pretty average over a large population.

I ran a similar experiment.
For a population of 18,000, I ran some random numbers.
For the skill stat, I ran random numbers between 0 to 95.
For luck stat, I ran random numbers between 0 to 5.
With a large population size, there will be many people with high skill stats.
So the only differentiating factor is how much more luck that person is.

I cut out only the top 100 ranked to show.
On the left, I arranged in descending order based on Skill + Luck and ranked them.
The top 12 people need to have BOTH skill and luck.
On the right, I arranged in descending order ONLY BASED on SKILL.
As you can see, on the right, there are people with full 95 points of skill or 94.99 of skill. But are not in the top ranks on the left cos they just don't have the luck.
If based purely on skill, the 5th ranked candidate is actually ranked 99th.
That's not to say that skill is useless. Skill is also very important.
BUT in a large population, the differentiating factor could just be that small additional bit of luck for the right time, right place, met the right person, sent to right email with the right words to the right person, etc etc... AND you also need skill.

What's left is really how luck changes the outcome.
That doesn't mean just sit down and wait for things to happen. It also means to work hard and try to be smart and learn from others and all that.
AND to capitalize it when luck shines on you.

It's the idea of... if you want to strike the lottery, the least you could do is to buy a lottery ticket.
Unless of course you expect to be doubly lucky and FIND the winning ticket on the floor.

So the important thing is to be hardworking and smart and be willing to learn.
And when luck comes along, then recognize it and make full use of it.
Regardless, there's really no point in blaming bad luck, cos... well... there's nothing one can do about it.
We can only do what we can. And even if we are jealous of someone else's good luck... well... also nothing we can do about that as well. Their luck doesn't really affect our luck so... Life goes on.

We need to do what we can with what we have.

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Being Prepared (Part 3 - Texas)

23/2/2021

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I wrote about being prepared in previous articles
Being Prepared
Being Prepared (Part 2)

Soooo.... Unless you've not been reading or watching the news... Most people would know that a large portion of Texas were hit by power and water outage.
I think around 90% of Houston also lost power and water due to sudden freak weather.
Apparently some arctic air broke off the artic region and made its way southwards and brought cold weather along its path.

And since I am staying in Houston... well, I was hit by power and water outage for 36 hours.
Power went out first. Then after around 12 hours, water stopped.
24 hours later, power came back first, then after around 12 hours, water came back.

When power went out... I wasn't too concerned. Even when it went down to -10 degrees Celsius.
It was cold, but I could always wrap up with more clothes. I had all my France winter wear so it wasn't too big a deal.
When power went out, the main thing I lost was, heating, refrigeration, cooking ability as my apartment was fitted with an electric stove, hot water, internet. Telco reception was intermittent.
So heating wasn't too much of an issue for us.
For the first 12 hours, I left my food in the fridge using the residual cold to keep the food in good condition. After I realized my meats were getting soft, I put them in plastic bags and left them on the balcony. The temperature outside was cold enough to keep my food in good condition.
I bought a portable canister stove for hurricane preparation. So I still had cooking ability.
The loss of hot water was a bit troublesome cos we couldn't take warm showers, and with the kind of temperatures, we weren't going to take cold showers.
The loss of internet and reception wasn't too much of an issue. My wife couldn't work, but besides that, it was just boring.
The thing is, we had faith that eventually, in a couple of days, things would be fixed.
And I had enough resources to last me a couple of weeks anyway.

When water ran out, it was a bit more troublesome. Cos we couldn't wash our cooking or eating utensils, or flush the toilet regularly.
I had bottled water ready, cos... well it's Texas, we always need to be ready. Hurricanes and floods happen yearly, so it's always necessary to be ready.
I also had a big tub of water filled up as we heard some areas were starting to lose water before us.
So we had drinking water, and also some excess water for washing or flushing sparingly.

One thing that I didn't read in Singapore media was that the road were all frozen up. The media talked about power and water outages. I don't think I read that... well the roads were frozen. Means we can't drive safely. It's not snow. It's ice. So vehicles can't steer, cos there's no friction. Vehicles can't brake, they just slip and slide.
So things were pretty tough cos some people were stuck on the road when the cold came, or they couldn't drive out for supplies, or emergency teams couldn't go and help people, etc... It's not only the cold and power and water outages that was the problem.

Overall, the whole experience wasn't too big an issue for us.
The worst thing was that our hair got really oily after 2 days without a bath and that was gross.
Besides that, we were pretty warm, had enough food and water.

HOWEVER...
Since I had nothing to do, I was reflecting a lot during those 2 days.
There's a lot of difference between reflecting when there's internet and other distractions.
Versus thinking about life when there's really nothing.
We really take for granted these simple things like power and ready clean water.
And I thought back about history...
We watch so many shows about kings like... Lord of the Rings, or Game of Thrones, and other medieval shows.
People actually spend their lives fighting against the elements. They fight against the cold, floods, wind, rain, fire, etc. That's what their lives are about. Surviving in a harsh environment.
There's no electric to power their heating, there's no ready food and water.
Before winter, they need to prepare, food, water, firewood, etc.
In the shows, they only show the main characters who are usually the kings or leaders. They don't need to do all these menial tasks.
But that's what life was about. Surviving harsh environments.
People don't turn on a tap for warm clean water. People don't go to NTUC at anytime of the day to pick out food.
When it's cold... like what I was experiencing, I don't want to waste energy by going out into the cold and trying to find food or resources. That needs to be done BEFORE the cold hits.

Mankind has been improving their lives to get out of this problem.
To get themselves more secure.
They domesticated animals so they didn't need to hunt.
Farmed so that they don't need to forage.
Man has been trying to remove uncertainty from their lives.
And as things progressed, they had steam power. Which is using the power of steam.
Then after that they had electric power.
And then I also realized... Man has already mostly achieved what they wanted to achieve.
They have removed a bulk of the uncertainty of life. Survival became a non-issue.
We have power, water, gas, 99% of the time.
We have almost any kind of food.
We now have so much time to enjoy life. BUT yet... so many people cannot do so. There are more things to achieve... HUH? Doesn't make sense.
As I lay bundled up in the cold on my bed with oily hair, all I wanted was a warm shower, warm food. I really didn't care about any other material stuff.

In truth, most of us already live like the kings of old.
We have any kind of meat on demand, spices which used to be super expensive, we have heat and water on demand. Internet, TV, entertainment on demand.
But yet it is not enough...
I digress...

Be prepared... It's actually quite easy.
As I think back on the past few days, I realized that frozen food isn't optimal, cos it thaws out and I could end up with bad food if the weather wasn't suitable to keep it well.
Canned food is better. So I'm planning to stock up a bit more canned food. I had eaten up most of my stocks which I had bought when staying indoors during the onset of COVID. Looks like I need to stock up a bit more again.
Bottled water is necessary. Never know when I'll need it. I usually don't drink bottled water. I just use tap water. But it's important to keep a couple of cartons of bottled water just in case water runs dry, or if tap water gets contaminated. Houston was on boil water notice for a couple of days, cos there was no water in the pipes so germs could grow in the pipes, and even when water came on, we needed to boil water before consuming it.
A portable gas stove is also important. With enough fuel to last for a couple of weeks. This ensured that we would have a warm meal in trying times. I'll be bringing this portable stove back to SG. I never realized how important it is. Sure we take gas for granted in SG. But really... never know.

The thing is, we live in a very protected environment in SG.
We don't really need to think about being prepared.
After staying in US and COVID.
I feel, it's very important to be prepared. Even in SG. Cos... we never know when we might need it.
We don't want to be unprepared when we need things. There would be a mad rush when people suddenly want to buy the products, like face masks just a year ago.
Food, water, cooking ability, canned food, back up battery power...
And... CASH... we don't realize this, we think credit cards will work...
Well, they didn't work when the power went out in Texas. Some supermarkets were nice enough to give away the food.

4 days after we got back power and water... life has pretty much returned to normal.
Supermarket shelves were empty and are slowly filling up again. For most people life is slowly getting back to normal.
It doesn't seem like too big a deal for those prepared.
And yet, for some, these few days have resulted in their lives never being the same again. People lost loved ones during just these fateful few days. It's quite sad. It doesn't take a lot of money to be prepared. And yet, it is so important.

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Most Things Aren't Black & White

11/2/2021

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A lot of times, people look at things from their own perspective.
Everyone, most people, think that their views are the "right" way.
And yet, most of the time, things aren't binary.

Like politics... some things that the Gov does are good, some things aren't good.
Same as opposition. It's not like you support the opposition, suddenly things will get better overnight.

It's not like if you have money, suddenly all your troubles will be gone. There will be other issues that appear and some other issues will disappear.

Or we may think that frugality is awesome and it helps people retire and live a better overall balanced life.
And yet many people might not want such a life. People want to enjoy their lives and maybe they are ok with working til they are 65.
It's not that bad. If people didn't like it, there would be more people who retired early. The fact that people don't retire early is testament to this. People want to enjoy their daily life MORE than they want to retire early.
And... that's ok. I mean, there are so many people who don't plan for their financial future and they still do fairly ok when they are older. It's not like there are thousands of homeless old folks living on the streets right?

Or some people think that "Oh this is THE way to lose weight", some swear by keto, some by calorie control, others by some other way...
And the thing is... all of them are right. If it works for you then it works for you.

Or someone might think that this charkwayteow is the best in SG. Yea... to him it is... what's wrong with that. Nothing to really discuss right? Everyone has their own favourite place to eat.

Same as countries... Some countries are miserably cold. And yet, people still stay there. Some places get hit by hurricane every year, and yet many people still stay there.
There's really no right or wrong answer.

Some people like to collect stuff, some people fill their homes to the brim...
I think unless it starts to impact their health... hey, who's to say there's anything wrong with that. Whatever makes them happy right?

The thing is... in life, and for a lot of things... there's a whole range of acceptable preferences.
Many things aren't black or white. Unless we are talking about crimes and stuff like that.
When we swing towards definitive right or wrongs, then I think that's when the problems come about. When we start to NOT recognize that the other preferences are just as valid.

When we start thinking that one Gov party is definitively better than the other.
When religious extremists come about.
When we think that rich people get rich on the expense of the poor.
Or when we think that the poor deserve to be poor cos they don't work hard enough.

Most things are grey. There's no definitive answer. We have to decide for ourselves what we want for our lives. But rejecting someone else's preference is the same as them rejecting our preferences.
We are all different and want different things.
There really isn't many things which are purely right or wrong.

Some things may lead to better outcomes.
Example, studying hard will likely result in better job prospects, and better wealth in future.
BUT... that's not right OR wrong. It's just another way of life.

Same like being frugal. Or any other lifestyle choice.

So you know... a lot of times, people think that if they accept someone else's point of view, means they lose their own... that's not true.
I can love charkwayteow from this shop. But doesn't mean that you can't love somewhere else. To me, this is the best CKT, but doesn't mean you have to love it as much as me.

If everyone just bothered about their own life and not get involved in other peoples' lives... I think society and the world will be a better place.

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The Correct Way To Live Life

10/2/2021

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I've been thinking about life as usual...

I look at myself. Personally, I feel like I read a lot, I learn about the world, environmental issues, political issues, learn about how big the cosmos are and our place in the cosmos, I read about religious stuff, financial planning, etc...
I try to live life with knowledge, to be aware of myself and my place in the world, to be considerate about myself and my place in society, etc...

Then I look at my wife. She doesn't bother about all these things.
I would say she's living a typical life. Grew up, studied hard, found work, work, earn, spend, enjoy life, doesn't think about political stuff, environmental stuff, social stuff, etc... Her entertainment after work is following celebrity news, or looking through food posts on Insta.

Then I think about an "idiot", you can define "idiot" however you want.
Could be someone whom you think is an inconsiderate prick, or an ass at work, or a family member whom you don't like or a mean person who you met in life, etc... whoever you think is an "idiot".

The thing about everyone is... Everyone lives with cause and effect.
If they do something good, they may or may not be rewarded for it.
If someone does something bad, they may or may not be punished for it.
A mean person may live his life entirely happy without care about someone else.
And a nice person may live his life miserable cos he feel he "cares" too much about others.
There may or may not be any positive or negative karma attributable to being good or bad.

As I think about this... I wonder about the "correct" way to live life.
And my conclusion comes down to...
Well... if someone lives up to their average life expectancy, around 85+ years old in SG...
Then... they've pretty much successfully played and completed the game.

If someone was a dick to everyone... but he never realized it, or he didn't care... He lived his life... maybe he suffered or maybe he enjoyed it. In the end he still completed his game at 85 years old or so.
Same as a nice person...
Or same as an ignorant person...
It's really their life and how they want to live it.

So back to me and my wife.
I sometimes get annoyed by how "cannot be bothered" she is about everything else.
Blissfully ignorant.
I wonder how she can live like this, cos to me, I like the knowledge and opinions I have about the issues around the world or country, and yet, it makes me concerned about what the future may bring.
And then when I think about how she lives her life. I ask myself, whether maybe that's the right way to go about it. I mean... in the end, we live til 85 or so... as long as she's happy then who's to say it's not right?

We go through life making decisions.
Some decisions have good outcomes, some have bad outcomes.
Bad decisions may lead to good outcomes.
Good decisions may lead to bad outcomes.
We get to enjoy the good or suffer bad outcomes.
Through this, we may improve or screw up our lives.
Through this, we may even screw up or improve other peoples' lives.
Some people may feel bad about screwing up other peoples' lives, some people don't care about others.

Those who feel negative consequences may change their ways, those who don't care may continue to persist in their ways.

In the end... most... MOST (not all) people will likely live til 85 or so.
Happy, sad, or anything in between... Who's to say what's right or wrong.
Each of us makes our own decisions and trudges along the path of life.
And I think we believe that we try to make the best of it, in our own ways.
And I think THAT... should be enough.

If someone is an ass... I'll probably avoid them. They could live their lives really happily being an ass to others. Who's to say that's wrong? The other people have a choice to avoid him, and if enough people avoid him, maybe he'll be sad and change his ways, but maybe he's ok with that.

This is the same for good people or bad people.
Consequences, good or bad... People will just have to live through it.

And hey... the benchmark is really quite low... just survive til 85 years old...
Besides that... I feel, the way to live life is pretty much your own way.
Cos the consequences are also your own.

Or as the song goes...

And now the end is near
And so I face the final curtain
My friend, I'll say it clear
I'll state my case, of which I'm certain
I've lived, a life that's full
I travelled each and every highway
And more, much more than this
I did it my way
Regrets, I've had a few
But then again, too few to mention
I did what I had to do
I saw it through, without exemption
I planned each chartered course
Each careful step along the by-way
And more, much more than this
I did it, my way
Yes, there were times
I'm sure you knew
When I bit off, more than I could chew
But through it all, when there was doubt
I ate it up and spit it out
I faced it all, and I stood tall
And did it my way
I've loved, I've laughed and cried
I've had my fill, my share of losing
And now, as tears subside
I find it all so amusing
To think I did all that
And may I say, not in a shy way
Oh no, oh no not me
I did it my way
For what is a man, what has he got?
If not himself, then he has naught
To say the things he truly feels
And not the words of one who kneels
The record shows, I took the blows
And did it my way
Yes, it was my way

- My Way

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Retail / Customer Satisfaction in the US

9/2/2021

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Just a short post today.
It's about the shopping experience in the US.
Something I didn't experience in SG.

There are a few really really good points on how US handles the retail experience.

1. Returns
I can bring an opened item back to many retailers and get a full refund back into how I originally paid for the products.
So I could return an opened peanut butter that I felt wasn't what I expected. Give them a receipt and get refunded in cash, or credit card, or gift card credit.
I have NEVER experienced that in Singapore.
I can return almost anything to major supermarkets or retailers, and it's a really really easy process. It's not like I have to jump through hoops to process a return, and neither does the staff processing the return ask too many questions.

2. Returns (Part 2)
I just bought something from Amazon. They delivered the wrong product.
My wife wrote to their CHATBOT... not even a human. The chatbot had some standard questions and standard responses that customers can reply.
So the chatbot asks why we want to return the product, they suggested some answers, she clicked on the "wrong item delivered" button.
The chatbot said that it will process a refund back to the Amazon account, it also replied that we don't need to return the product.
So we get the product for free and our credit back.

NEVER GONNA HAPPEN IN SG.

3. Freebies
My wife likes to go online and scour for deals.
So she tries to get samples of products, or volunteers to review products, etc...
She goes to buy a specific item, tries it, gives a review, then submits the receipt to the company for a full refund.
Or companies would send her products to try and she just needs to give a review.
Or they would send coupons whereby we can go to the retailer and just buy the product for free using the coupon.
We get stuff like milk, almond milk, vitamin gummies, ham, plant based meat from different brands, coffee, pizza from a leading pizza chain, etc...
This isn't some small bottle or milk or products. This is like really an actual product which we buy from the supermarket. A full carton of milk, or a large pizza, etc...

4. Freebies (Part 2)
And then when it was our birthday, we downloaded some apps and created accounts for a bunch of food eateries, some fast food, some are sandwich shops, burger shops, etc...
And we can get a free burger, or sandwich (similar to subway), and a couple of other eateries.
We've eaten from a couple of places for free due to this.
Just go to the outlet, order, flash a code from the app, the end. No purchase necessary.

5. Stacking coupons / promos
We can use multiple different coupons and promos for a purchase at most leading supermarkets.
There's the manufacturer coupon, then there's the supermarket coupons, AND supermarket promos.
So if a supermarket has a buy 5 item and get $1 off each of the item promo (this is considered a supermarket promo),
AND a coupon which gives $0.50 off for toothpaste (this is considered a supermarket coupon),
AND a $2 manufacturer coupon, they ALL can be used together.
Resulting in a $3.50 discount off the product, and this could result in a product being free.
Also, there's a possibility that this product might be featured in another app as a promo item and we could also submit the receipt for even more rebates making a purchase a money maker.

Doesn't exist in SG. Where most promos/discounts are always "Not valid with other promos".

The way I look at it, is that, in the US, the marketing is really really aggressive.
They don't mind giving away products or samples, for consumers to try.
Just try it, so that maybe you'll like it and become a regular customer.
It's entirely a different experience. They just want people to try their stuff.
The idea is that if it's good enough, you'll end up ditching your regular brand for whatever new brand you're trying. And the companies are ok with such marketing techniques and expenses.
It's quite hard to keep up with the freebies and promos. There's a lot of stuff.
And I can see why some people can't be bothered to chase these freebies. It takes a lot of dedication cos it's all over the place, different websites, diff retailers, etc.
It's much easier to just focus on what you want and just buy it, instead of trying to get the stuff for free.
There is some effort required.

Nonetheless, this is quite a nice experience in the US.
The retail, customer returns, freebies, really make me feel that SG is really far behind in this aspect.
I mean... I've never been able to return anything in SG. OR even if I return something, it needs to be unopened and I can only get credit back such that I still need to spend the credits at the same shop again.

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Financial Statements of Life

3/2/2021

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In the last post, I talked about COVID being the real life report card.

It's like the Balance Sheet of life. Where we are at a point in time.
Then I thought, what about the Profit & Loss Statement and Cashflow Statement? How does that fit into life?

Well, let's go through this.
A Balance Sheet is a snapshot of a company.
In life, well, it's could be seen as a snapshot of a particular time. Our life situation at a particular point.
Things could be good, or bad, it is what it is.
We're not talking purely about money, I mean, it's metaphorical.
We talk about strong balance sheets, weak balance sheets.
Some parts of our life may be good, finances may be good, but maybe other parts may not be as good, or vice versa. Kids, no kids, health, lack of health, talent or lack of it, parents to take care of, etc...

So we all have our current status in life.

When we review a company's P&L or Cashflow, it's pretty much, what's happening for the period.
What has the company been doing? And was it successful in what it was doing.

Did it make good decisions? Good strategy, good execution, etc...
A company could have a good strategy, but poor execution.
Or a bad strategy but with pure luck, everything turned out well.
A company might have good sales, but poor receivables, which can be seen in the P&L and CF statements.
Or a company might have good profits, but yet the profits might be coming from non-core operational activities.
Or a company may have a debt laden balance sheet, but yet it is part of their strategy, and it is able to make profits, but it might be a higher risk company as it might end up in financial difficulties if business turns bad.

So I would say... the P&L and CF of life...
Is what we did with what we have.
Something like, our decisions and how we managed our decisions.
Maybe someone may have made good decisions, but somehow ended up poorly due to bad luck.
Maybe someone made bad decisions, but ended up well due to good luck.
Or good decisions with poor execution,
Or good decisions with good execution, etc...

Like... some people might really study hard when they are young. But somehow they just aren't able to excel academically.
So that's a good decision, but poor balance sheet, some people aren't able to do well in school. BUT... doesn't mean they can't be successful in life. They can make other decisions and take other paths to do well in life.

Or some people may invest but invest in the wrong things.
Good idea, poor execution.

A lot of time, we talk about the Balance Sheets of Life...
Our assets, what we have, it's easier to discuss and talk about our Balance Sheets.
It's a snapshot. Like a photograph.
Balance Sheets are great to show off.
Nice bodies on Insta, faraway holiday destinations, atas food at pricey restaurants, etc.

But yet, shouldn't we also look at the P&L and CF statements?
Our paths to success, or decisions made to disaster?
We all have different Balance Sheets. We all have different assets and liabilities.
We all start out at different points in life.
And it is what we do with what we have that matters. Our decisions we made, how we capitalized on what we had and made something out of it.
Not so easy to show on Insta right?
Shouldn't we also celebrate that kid who underperformed in school but managed to make it in life?
Or someone who managed to rise out of poverty through making good strategy and execution?

For folks who started out with poor balance sheets, it's really really hard to get a stronger balance sheet in life. It takes a lot of good decisions, hard work, luck, persistence, sacrifice, discipline etc. So easy to have failed, so many correct decisions to make to be successful.
Everything needs to fall into place nicely.
And unfortunately we aren't able to easily reflect that on social media.

When assessing a company, all the financial statements are important.
Same as in life. We need to keep a strong balance sheet. It keeps us stable in times of crisis.
But the P&L and CF are also important. What we do with what we have and how we improve our balance sheet along the way.
In times of crisis, like COVID, the P&L and CF might not be doing well, but if the balance sheet is strong, then people will be able to better weather the downturn.

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The Effect Of Luck On Our Lives

Being Prepared (Part 3 - Texas)

Most Things Aren't Black & White

The Correct Way To Live Life

Retail / Customer Satisfaction in the US

​Financial Statements of Life

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Financial Statements of Life