I watched the film The Big Short again cos it was showing in the hotel room.
I wrote about it before
https://earlyretirementsg.weebly.com/blog/the-big-short

And I felt all depressed all over again.
And I wonder why I get depressed... So I thought more about it.
And I came down to a couple of points. It's a complicated network of issues and a lack of responsibility of a lot of people.

And it boils down to capitalism and specialization of skills and knowledge, and a lot of conflicts of interest in between.
Most normal people just want to live their lives. So let's say the average person wants to do his own work, earn a lot of money, and live well and usually want to live in luxury. They want to do their own thing and not bother about other things which they aren't specialized in.

So let's say, "the customer", the average worked, plumber, carpenter, shopkeeper, etc... They usually aren't financially educated. They just want to do their work and live their lives, they want to buy their homes, and enjoy their life. They expect someone else to "know" so they approach someone with "expertise" to advise them...

Then the mortgage specialist, wants to earn money, he has a boss to report to, he needs to dish out loans else someone else will make better sales than him. So he just grants the loans. He's just "doing his job". He's incentivized to grant loans to anyone, regardless of their credit abilities.
Is there a conflict of interest here? Of course there is.

Banks and bankers securitize the loans into ABS/CDOs...
Banks want these risky assets off their balance sheets. So they repackage the loans into investable assets and sell them to unknowing investors.
The banker is "just doing his job" he repackages the individual loans into sellable assets so that he can sell another product to investors. It's lucrative for him to pack "low risk" assets with good returns and they sell well. So he gets good bonuses.

Is there a conflict of interest? Yes there is.
The bank takes on little risk by giving out loans, cos they can repackage the loans and sell them away. So it makes sense for them to give out as much loans and repackage them to sell, so they earn from both giving out the loan and selling the loan as an investment.

The banks want the assets to sell well so they approach rating agencies S&P or Moody's to give a good rating. The rating agencies know if they don't give a good rating, the bank will just approach the competitor who will be willing to give the good rating. The rating agencies are supposed to be independent so that investors can have some form of "expertise" rate the assets for them. But... Conflict of interest again, cos the rating agencies are profit driven so they will be incentivized to take the business and just give a good rating. The worker at the rating agency "is just doing his job".

The investor, "the 2nd customer", buys the asset. Low risk high return assets. Could be an institutional investor or retail... In the end, most of them rely on rating agencies to give them some indication of the risk of the asset. Fund houses buy the assets, well... Even if they lose money, they will still get their management fees. It makes sense to buy low risk high return assets.

Then we repeat the whole process with CDS/STS and synthetics. Which is essentially "insurance" on the above products. But since it's the banks which are creating the product, then the banks can essentially price them at whatever price they want. Not to mention creating synthetic swaps, meaning customers can buy insurance on something that doesn't exist.

Cos once again, conflicts of interest, banks are profit driven. Bankers want their fat bonuses. Don't be too judgmental. If you were a banker, you'd probably have done the same thing.

And... The thing about most parts of life and capitalism, is that due to specialization, this issue above manifests in many places. Most people are so specialized that they don't know a lot about other topics.

In the show, Michael Burry wrote in his final letter to investors.
"...People want an authority to tell them how to value things, but they choose this authority not based on facts or results. They choose it because it feels authoritative and familiar..."

A simple example is...
Financial advisers and insurance/financial planning. There's a lot of conflicts of interest in the market. Most people don't know how to plan or what to buy, so the financial planner who is supposed to represent the client, is incentivized to just sell as much as the client can accept. The customer just doesn't know better.

OR
Customers don't know how long they are able to keep preserved foods for. They don't know about expiry dates and what they mean/represent. They look towards the manufacturer to determine what's a reasonable date before the product is deemed unsuitable for consumption.
As a manufacturer, they are incentivized to set the expiry date really short so that customers will quickly consume the food and buy again, or dispose and buy again.
Once again conflicts of interest.
I wrote about that before too.
https://earlyretirementsg.weebly.com/blog/the-story-of-the-12-year-old-drink

OR
How about doctors or medical specialists? Most people aren't too well versed in medical issues so they trust the doctor to do "what's best for them". But a medical specialist may recommend surgery for the smallest of issues, cos that's where the money lies.
I wrote about that here too
https://earlyretirementsg.weebly.com/blog/is-your-medical-specialist-cheating-your-money

OR
Exercise, weight loss and healthy eating?
There are many products and specialists who try to sell the promise of weight loss, cos most people don't understand weight loss well.
In reality, it's a simple method. Eat less, exercise more.
You can even eat charkwayteow, but eat half plate la.
But no, people may buy into gimmicks or some special products or feel they have to make a radical life change. Some people don't believe it can be so easy. They think they must "suffer" else they can't lose weight.
Or they hope that there is some easier way to lose weight.
But yet, weight loss is very simple. But if they told you that, there isn't any money to be made.

Read about a professor who lost weight eating junk food.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/professor-loses-27-pounds-on-junk-food-diet.amp

I'm not saying to follow the dieting method. I'm saying it's possible to lose weight without any special product and that you can eat normal food but in moderation. Generally, all that's needed is to eat less.

So once again, conflicts of interest. Weight loss specialists usually want to sell something.

And conflicts of interest manifests everywhere. And usually, we don't need anything more to make our lives happier, but marketers want us to believe that we have something missing in our lives so they try to "fix" our unhappiness by offering us more products.

And we, as the "sheep" in society, are usually so clueless and just trust in the "experts" cos, many of us are so specialized and just want to live our own lives and it's so much easier not to get educated about another topic and just trust someone else to tell us what to do...

But... Are these "experts" really helping you? Or are they helping themselves? Or maybe they themselves are clueless and part of this ridiculous system?

They're just... "Doing their job" right?


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It's actually quite common for me to get comments about how lucky I am to go to Paris with my wife. 
Maybe if it was the same me 5 years back, I might have thought the same.

But now... I think differently.
Why?

Let's think about it...
When I talk about travel, or getting in a plane, what memories or experiences are triggered?

For many people, they think of their holidays, having fun, going to enjoy themselves, sightseeing.
Based on their past experience, most people get on a plane and travel to another country for leisure. So when I talk about my upcoming move to France, most people relate it to their own travelling experiences. Shopping, romance, croissants, spending money, enjoying themselves.

Some people have company trips, incentive trips, etc. Those are also for leisure. When I was working, I did have a couple of business trips. 

However, not many people travel for business/work almost once a month. Not many people get posted overseas. I'm sure that there are many people who have worked overseas before. I'm sure you know a friend who has worked overseas before. But generally, most Singaporeans don't travel much for their work, or don't get posted overseas.

So, it's pretty understandable that they relate travel as leisure. Cos that's the only experience they have when they think about getting on a plane. 

Now... Do you think staying in Singapore is leisure? 
Cos that's what I'm going to be doing. I'm going to be staying in a country for 2 years. That's going to be my new "home". 
I've been to Paris 4 times in 13 months.
 
The novelty of travelling there is gone. 

I'll probably not be sight seeing when I'm there, or maybe minimally. It's not a holiday. 

People say that I can travel the whole of Europe during my period there... Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Germany, different provinces in France, etc...

Similarly... I would ask... Have you(they) travelled the whole of SEA region? 
Philippines, the many islands of Indonesia, the many states of Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam?
How often do you get to travel per year? 

Cos it's the same... Just cos I'm in France, doesn't mean that I'll have the budget and time to travel all around the region.

As I said. It's not a holiday. 
It's a business posting. And yes, I do have to try to make the most of it. 

Anyway, today's rant isn't only about my trip and the comments I get.
It made me realize/understand that... People judge things based on their own past experience of the topic, although it may not be accurate. Cos they will try to find the closest personal experience that matches the topic to try to relate. 

And I think this manifests in many ways. 

Example, if we know a friend who's facing some troubles, we may just tell them to move on or forget it. Cos based on our own experience, that's how we handled our past issues. But not everyone's brain is wired similarly. It may not be so easy for someone else to let go of something and move on. 

Or, some people study better than others. And maybe you think maths or financial topics are easy, but others have significant difficulty grasping the concepts. And we may wonder why it's so hard for them to understand...
Cos based on our past experience, we may think such topics are easy, but it may not be easy for someone else.

After realizing this... I tend to be a bit more understanding that people won't understand me in many ways... My early retirement/joblessness, my sian-ness of travel, my sian-ness of Paris, my freegan journey, etc.... 
I mean... I think I've lived a life really way different from the average Singaporean. So I think it's going to be tough for many people to understand my situation.

So... When I hear...
"You(I) should be grateful that I get to go to Paris to stay. Other people want also don't have"
 
As much as I feel... "Wahlaueh, other people want is their problem. Doesn't mean it's what I want lor..."

I just keep quiet and smile and nod at them... Cos... They'll probably never understand.


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I'm sure we've all heard people talking about saving the planet.

And really... That's just rubbish. The Earth isn't sick. It's not dying. It's been around for billions of years.

The last 2000 years is just a small speck in the timeline of the Earth. Dinosaurs roamed the earth. Earth has been through multiple ice ages, global warming phases, etc...

There was probably no life on Earth when it first started. And it was doing fine as a planet just floating around in space. And it's still a planet floating around in space, now, but now there's life on it.

You see... We, humans, can't really destroy the planet. Like we aren't gonna crack the planet into two right? Not really likely...

HOWEVER... What we can do... Is to make the planet uninhabitable for humans. Humans... Cos there will be a lot of animals and insects that will survive after Earth becomes inhabitable for humans.

So you know what... All these people who sound noble trying to "save the planet"... Well... They are trying to save our/their home... EARTH. They are trying to maintain the status quo so that humans can continue to thrive on Earth...

But no... They aren't saving the planet. Cos the planet isn't sick, it's not dying. It will probably still exist long after humans are gone. And it will regrow and flourish.

Humans have destroyed the homes of thousands of animals. The Earth itself has destroyed and made extinct millions of animals. It's the circle of life and evolution. Only man thinks they are great enough to "protect" these animals for "future generations".

Yes, of course, it's the actions of man that cause many species to go extinct. And I don't fault man/people for trying to protect things and keep the status quo... No one likes change. It's such a pity if XYZ species goes extinct. And yet millions of other species have gone extinct. And you know what... "Noone" really cares. The plants don't care, the Earth doesn't care, the other animals don't care... And guess what? Only humans care...

The idea that... Something only has value only when someone has put value on it. (You know, like diamonds) And in this context... Man has made the idea of protecting endangered species "valuable".

And man has destroyed the habitat of thousands of species and also... Man is also destroying his own habitat. And like all species, we will try to adapt and change and save ourselves.

So make no mistake... All those folks trying to save our planet... Are really trying to save our own home. And many people don't care. They don't realize that it's their kids or grand kids that's gonna suffer and face the consequences.

Now, of course, I'm not saying. Let's just don't care and let our habitat, the Earth, become inhabitable. I'm just trying to put things into context.
1. We aren't saving the planet. We are trying to protect our home.
2. Endangered animals are worth saving cos humans feel they are worth saving. Noone else really bothers.
3. No one likes change. So they try to preserve the status quo.
​
Why we shouldn't save the planet?
Cos the planet doesn't need saving.
We do.


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So in my previous post, I was lamenting on my move to France...

And how I've been feeling about it is really as though I have 2 months left... Ok, obviously it's not as serious as that. But... it got me thinking a lot... cos... I'll be gone for 2 years, and I'll miss a lot of things, I'll miss my friends, family, activities that I can only do in SG, I'll not see my nephews grow up, etc...

And I start to get a little sense about what it means to leave things behind. Just a little. I mean... at least I still can come back after 2 years. Death is a lot more permanent. 
But it got me thinking. I have around 2 months left before I leave a lot of my current life behind.
And I ask myself. How would I want to spend this 2 months. What would I want to do? How can I consolidate 2 years worth of missed experiences with friends and family within 2 months?

And I think these are precious moments. Cos... I don't know when I'll see some of them again, I won't see my nephews grow up, which is sad cos there's so much development cos they are so young. 
And I'll miss my parents and grand parents...
And I'll miss all the freegan activities which has provided me with a lot of fun and happiness for the past year or so... and all my friends in the community... 

It's really hard to leave...
So I've been going out more, spending more time on things that I enjoy doing. I go out late as well, which is tiring, usually I don't like to go out late, but I'm thinking, I can always rest when I'm in France, or when I'm in KL, cos I'm going KL soon again even before I go France. 

And... I realize, what I'll miss most is the people. The connections I've made, and the times we spend together. It's not about the money, or expensive food, or items. It's just the time spent with friends and family, eating, chatting, simple stuff like that. 
It's not the expensive dinners or gifts. That's just not the stuff I'll miss. 

And that's the most revealing part... And I think... it's good that I realized this... cos it really makes me think more about life... 
Why do people keep chasing so much material wealth? 
Why do people wait til the last minute before they think about spending more time doing the stuff they like and spending time with the people that they love?
Why do parents spend so much time working and miss out on watching their children grow up? There are a lot of people who have enough financially, but yet they feel they don't have enough and justify their continuous working by saying "I'm working FOR the kids, to give them a GOOD life...".

Now, of course, I'm not saying don't work... I'm saying... keep a good balance.
Life isn't about work. Money is necessary... but in the end... what matters is the time spent with people and the connections and experiences that you have shared with them.


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